Heat vs. Spurs predictions, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA picks, Dec. 10 best bets from proven model

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The San Antonio Spurs visit the Miami Heat for a Saturday evening battle at FTX Arena. The Spurs are 7-18 this season, though San Antonio won its last game over Houston on Thursday. The Heat are 12-14 and 9-5 at home in 2022-23. Gabe Vincent (knee) and Omer Yurtseven (ankle) are out for the Heat, with Dewayne Dedmon listed as questionable. Jakob Poeltl (knee), Jeremy Sochan (quad), Blake Wesley (knee) and Keita Bates-Diop (foot) are out for the Spurs, with Devin Vassell (knee) listed as questionable.

Tip-off is at 5 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the 12-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Spurs picks, be sure to to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 111-70 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Spurs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines and trends for Spurs vs. Heat:

  • Spurs vs. Heat spread: Heat -12
  • Spurs vs. Heat over/under: 224.5 points
  • Spurs vs. Heat money line: Heat -650, Spurs +460
  • SAS: The Spurs are 4-7 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-10-1 against the spread in home games
  • Spurs vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

Why the Spurs can cover

San Antonio is struggling overall, but the Spurs do have sound fundamentals on offense. The Spurs are No. 4 in the NBA in assists, averaging 27.7 helpers per game. San Antonio is also in the top three in assist percentage, producing an assist on 66.0% of field goals. The Spurs are in the top 10 of the league in both offensive rebound rate (29.3%) and second-chance points (15.2 per game), and San Antonio generates 14.8 fast-break points per game. 

San Antonio is in the top eight in points in the paint (52.9 per game), and the Spurs are also facing a Miami team that is just No. 25 in the NBA in offensive efficiency with 109.5 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are No. 6 in the league in free throw prevention, giving up only 21.5 attempts per game.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defensive infrastructure is top-notch, and the Heat are giving up only 111.4 points per 100 possessions this season. That places Miami above the median in the NBA, and the Heat lead the league in free throw prevention (19.3 attempts allowed per game) and points allowed in the paint (44.9 per game). Miami creates 16.0 turnovers per game, sixth-most in the NBA, and that includes 7.8 steals per contest. The Heat are also quite strong on the defensive glass, grabbing 73.2% of available defensive rebounds and allowing only 13.0 second-chance points per game. 

Miami gets back in transition, yielding 12.3 fast break points per game, and San Antonio is near the bottom of the league in multiple offensive categories. The Spurs have the second-worst offensive rating (107.5 points per 100 possessions) this season, and San Antonio is in the bottom five of the league in free throw creation, free throw accuracy and turnover rate, giving the ball away on 16% of possessions.

How to make Spurs vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 236 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model’s NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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