Here we go again.
It was only two months ago that the entire league was singing the Pelicans’ praises as the hottest team in the Western Conference on their way to occupying the No.1 seed.
New Orleans had gone 12-3 over a 15-game stretch – including a seven-game winning streak and back-to-back statement wins over the Phoenix Suns – while also being the only team in the NBA to rank in the top six in both offensive (sixth) and defensive (third) rating, to emerge as a shock title contender.
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A big reason for the Pelicans charge up the NBA pecking order was the MVP-level play of their finally-healthy superstar Zion Williamson, who averaged 30 points on 66% shooting, 9.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists over their seven-game winning streak, to propel the franchise from predicted playoff contender pre-season to a seemingly legitimate championship threat.
The former No.1 pick, fresh off signing a five-year rookie max extension worth at least $193 million ($A307m) this past off-season, was finally living up to his potential after appearing to have overcome a slew of injuries that plagued the early parts of his career including missing all of last season with a foot issue.
But alas, it was short lived as Zion’s injury issues once again came to the fore when the 22-year-old injured his hamstring on a fast-break play against the Philadelphia 76ers back on January 3rd (AEDT).
The team originally announced that they would shut down the former Duke product for at least three weeks, at which point he was to be re-evaluated.
A few weeks later New Orleans provided an update on his recovery saying that the two-time NBA All-Star was healing “as expected” and would be re-evaluated in another two weeks.
Then came yesterday’s devastating news with Pelicans vice president David Griffin revealing that Williamson is expected to miss several more weeks after re-aggravating his hamstring strain, according to a report by The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
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In the six weeks since Zion last stepped on the floor, New Orleans have been in a downward spiral, going 7-14 (including today’s crucial 103-100 win over OKC) to dramatically fall from 23-14 – third in the West – to barely hovering above .500 with a 30-28 record that currently has them as the Western Conference’s No. 7 seed.
What’s more their offensive (22nd), defensive (17th), and net rating (25th) across that stretch have been deplorable.
Perhaps even more concerning for Pelicans fans however is the revelation that the time frame for Zion’s latest injury setback “could be at least another month”, according to the latest update from The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski went into further detail during an appearance on ‘NBA Today’.
“The timeline for his return is very open-ended. After the All-Star break when he’s re-evaluated again, they’ll have a better view of just exactly how long it might be but these hamstring injuries are tricky,” Wojnarowski said Tuesday morning (AEDT).
“I think when you’re doing the ramp-up on your way back there’s always a level of caution of not pushing too hard because you could have a setback. We saw that with Devin Booker (earlier) this season (who) came back played a few minutes on Christmas Day and then was out again.
“Zion Williamson, he had a first 29 games of the season that was All-Star-worthy. He was voted a starter (in the All-Star game), (shot) 60% from the floor, and of course 26 points a game. The Pelicans were winning, they were 17-12 with him, but they have to be prepared now to go another significant period without him in the lineup… The hope is that they will get him back at some point before the post-season.”
In what is becoming a recurring nightmare for the organisation and it’s fans, the former National College Player of the Year has now missed a whopping 170 games out of a possible 284 games since being taken first overall in the 2019 NBA draft.
Prior to entering the league Zion Williamson was the hottest NBA prospect since LeBron James, signing the richest annual rookie shoe deal in NBA history – a five year, $75 million ($A107.6m) contract with Nike’s Jordan brand – before he had even played a league game.
However, to this point of his career, Zion’s NBA journey has been far more reminiscent of former player Greg Oden than it has that of arguably the greatest player of all time in James.
Like Williamson, Oden was a much-hyped No. 1 draft pick following a decorated high school and college career that included leading Lawrence North High School to three consecutive state championships from 2004-06 and helping the Ohio State Buckeyes to a runner-up finish in the 2007 National Championship game.
His accomplishments during that span included being named Indiana Mr Basketball and the Gatorade National player of the year in high school while also being named as a member of the 2007 first-team All-Big Ten team, a Consensus second-team All-American, and winning the Pete Newell Big Man Award in his lone season with the Buckeyes.
So highly touted was Oden coming out of college that he was selected by the Portland Trail Blazers ahead of Kevin Durant in the 2007 NBA draft.
Unfortunately for both Oden and the Blazers franchise, the 7-foot centre failed to live up to the lofty expectations placed on his shoulders during his five seasons in the Northwest, with injuries restricting him to just 82 games across the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons prior to being waived by the team in March 2012.
After a brief stint playing with LeBron James’ Miami Heat during the 2013-14 season (averaging 9.2 minutes across 23 games), Oden found himself out of the league for good.
Despite his own availability issues, Zion has certainly already delivered more on the court during his short NBA career than Oden ever did during his disappointing six years in the league – but nevertheless his injury history has to be of great concern to the Pelicans moving forward.
When he was entering the NBA the biggest query over Williamson was whether he could stay healthy considering his rare combination of weight, size and freakish athleticism – and so far that concern has proved justified.
As previously mentioned, when the North Carolina native has stayed healthy and managed to make it on the floor, opposition teams simply haven’t had any answers for the 6-foot-6, 130kg wrecking ball as Zion has silenced his critics.
The dynamic power forward is in the midst of arguably a career-best season – averaging 26 points, 7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 60.8% from the field, 36.8% from beyond the arc and 71.4% from the free throw line – resembling the once-in-a-generation type monster that New Orleans had hoped to see when they drafted him.
With 25-year-old star wing Brandon Ingram – their second-best player who’s averaged 20.8 points per game, 5.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists this season – valuable veterans such as Jonas Valanciunas, CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. as well as talented youngsters such as Herb Jones Jose Alvardao and Aussie Dyson Daniels also on the roster, the Pelicans have a core nucleus capable of challenging for a championship. That doesn’t even take into account the team’s recent trade acquisition in big wing Josh Richardson, who adds valuable playoff experience and depth to an already talented squad.
However, as evidenced by the stark difference in their record and overall performance with and without him on the floor, the key to any title push in New Orleans is their franchise cornerstone in Zion.
The Pelicans may currently sit seventh in the West, but they are only four games ahead of the 13th place Lakers – who made a number of roster improving moves ahead of last Friday’s trade deadline – and with Williamson now reportedly out of action until at least mid March, the Pelicans will have a fight on their hands just to stay afloat long enough to hope that Zion can return in time for a run at the playoffs.
Even if their superstar was able to make it back in time for the playoffs and managed to stay healthy for the rest of the season, he would likely take time to get back to his form pre-injury.
With other contenders in the West such as the Clippers, Mavericks, Suns and even the Nuggets all making key moves to improve their teams that means it’s going to be an uphill climb for the Pelicans to even make it out of the conference.
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Zion has shown the type of game-changing talent so far this season that can propel New Orleans to the franchise’s maiden NBA title, but the re-emergence of his health issues have to leave you concerned for his future should he not find a way to overcome his injury curse.
The Pelicans have invested a significant amount of money ($A307m) into making Williamson the key piece of their plans moving forward but they have also taken a huge risk by putting their faith in a player who so far has failed to play in more than half (59.9%) of his NBA games so far.
“I don’t think Zion Williamson is going to play 70+ games,” former NBA player Eddie Johnson said last month.
“I’ve said this even before he got drafted. We’ve never seen a body this big, this explosive play this game. He puts so much torque on his body. His body is not built to play this game. It’s not. But he is very good at this game. And that’s why he plays it. But he’s going to pay a price, man. That was ugly right there, that was ugly, that was non contact… That tells me he has some tightness going on.”
With Zion’s rookie max extension set to kick in next season, accounting for roughly 25% of the team’s salary cap moving forward, the Pelicans don’t have the luxury of wasting this season and banking on making a title charge in 2024.
If New Orleans fails to capitalise while Williamson is in the final year of his rookie deal and can’t find a way to keep their superstar out of the rehab group then they may soon find themselves questioning whether they are receiving enough of a return on investment.
But, of course, as a small market they also need his talent to become any sort of realistic title contender.
He is their problem. And their solution.