Hertz Arena in Estero, Fla., displays four intriguing college basketball matchups on Monday as the 2022 Gulf Coast Showcase unfolds. The first game, taking place in a late-morning time slot, pits the Kansas City Roos against the Toledo Rockets. UMKC is 1-4 to begin the season, though the Roos have three losses against power-conference opponents. Toledo is 3-0 to begin the campaign, sweeping Valparaiso, UAB and Oakland after a 26-win performance a season ago.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 18-point favorites for this 11 a.m. ET tip-off. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 152 in the latest Toledo vs. Kansas City odds. Before making any Kansas City vs. Toledo picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past six years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of more than $1,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread.
Now, the model has set its sights on Toledo vs. Kansas City and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Kansas City vs. Toledo:
- Toledo vs. UMKC spread: Toledo -18
- Toledo vs. UMKC over/under: 152 points
- Toledo vs. UMKC money line: Toledo -2400, UMKC +1100
- TOL: The Rockets are 3-0 against the spread this season
- KC: The Roos are 2-1 against the spread in the last three games
- Toledo vs. UMKC picks: See picks at SportsLine
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Why Toledo can cover
Toledo’s offense is its centerpiece, including 96.8 points per game and top-10 national marks in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage this season. The Rockets have three players averaging at least 19 points per game, and Kansas City projects to have difficulty in preventing an offensive deluge. With that said, Toledo is also sound on defense, including a top-40 national ranking in free throw prevention. The Rockets have a 73.9% defensive rebound rate and a 10.9% steal rate this season, stellar marks in both categories, and Toledo is above the national average in 3-point attempt rate allowed and assist rate allowed.
Kansas City has clear offensive deficiencies, headlined by an overall efficiency mark outside the top 300 in the country. The Roos are shooting only 18.0% from 3-point range, one of the worst marks in the nation, and Kansas City has a 29.0% turnover rate and a glaring 15.5% live-ball turnover rate that should fuel Toledo’s transition attack.
Why Kansas City can cover
Kansas City is led by a veteran in senior guard Shemarri Allen. He is averaging 16.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.2 steals per game, and Allen is a dynamic force. Kansas City is also very strong on the offensive glass, securing 32.8% of missed shots, and the Roos are shooting 71.4% at the free throw line. Toledo is below-average in turnover creation rate on defense, with opponents shooting 34.8% from 3-point range.
The Rockets also have a meager 6.5% block rate, and Kansas City also has strengths on defense. The Roos are holding the opposition to less than 50% shooting on 2-point attempts this season, and Toledo is below the national average in free throw creation rate and free throw accuracy, making only 69.5% of attempts at the charity stripe this season.
How to make Kansas City vs. Toledo picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 148 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can see the picks here.
So who wins Toledo vs. Kansas City? And which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.