England vs India, 2nd semi-final Guyana, June 27, 10.30am local time
Big picture – Adelaide redux
All the best origin stories start from a point of intense trauma. England’s rise from their humiliation in Adelaide at the 2015 ODI World Cup has been well documented – the shedding of reticence and the embracing of risk, the faith in a new generation under the guidance of a handful of wise old heads, and the reaping of rewards that could scarcely have been countenanced while the old mentality held sway – including (albeit briefly) concurrent World Cups of the 50 and 20-over variety.
Who rightly knows where England’s narrative arc has now reached, particularly after that feeble 50-over defence in India last year, but also during a skittish journey through the Caribbean that has been carried, almost exclusively, by their brutal treatment of Associate opponents.
What we do know, however, is that – as they passed through Adelaide in November 2022 en route to that second world title – England’s arc intersected with India’s own nadir. As in 2015, the sense after that ten-wicket drubbing in the T20 World Cup semi-final was of a team so wrapped up in its home-soil dominance that it had lost sight of the need to mitigate for foreign conditions. Something had to change urgently, and to judge by India’s inexorable (but as yet unrewarded) response, it surely has.
Here, though, is an appetising acid test of India’s new methods. At some stage, it seems inevitable that their decade-long drought at ICC events will have to come to an end, but then again, they probably assumed it was already over after coasting through to last year’s 50-over final in Ahmedabad. Much as Ben Stokes’ experience in Kolkata in 2016 was a vital factor in England’s subsequent glory, the trauma of that loss to Australia will surely have hardened India’s resolve as they encounter the sharp end of another global tournament. No one should expect an easy ride in a knock-out scenario, especially when the desire for victory has been allowed to consume the process of achieving it.
England, on the other hand, have been consumed of late by an entirely different emotion. The fear of failure hadn’t been a particularly familiar bedfellow throughout their years of white-ball bottom-feeding, but with so much silverware there to lose, they seemed paralysed by anxiety throughout the 50-over World Cup, and again in their formless group-stage loss to the now-absent Australians in Barbados.
Now, however, you wonder if the fulfilment of the bare minimum of the squad’s expectations – a fourth consecutive T20 World Cup semi-final – can unleash something different in the psyche of a group of players who clearly know what it takes to get across the line. India haven’t won a World Cup since 2011; South Africa and Afghanistan on the other side of the draw have never won one at all. England could yet be in the running for a third title in five years.
As Australia have spent their entire existence demonstrating, that familiarity with the unique pressures of knockout contests clearly counts for something. But so too does a burning desire to prove a point that has been years in the making. Assuming the rain stays away, one or other position will have to give way. It promises to be compelling whatever comes to pass.
Form guide
India WWWWW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first) England WLWWW
In the spotlight – Rohit, Buttler, Rashid, Kuldeep
In a match of such high stakes, it’s impossible to look past the influence of the two captains – opening bats and icons in their own right, and two men who have hit a vein of form that has the power to dictate their team’s prospects.
Rohit Sharma did just that in his smackdown of Australia in St Lucia, throwing caution to the wind – quite literally – in his calculated assault on Mitchell Starc, and accelerating ever deeper into his day’s work, in the unfettered manner that has been his calling card ever since that notoriously reticent display in Adelaide in 2022. Rohit’s conscious breaking of India’s milestone-orientated mould could yet prove to be his most important legacy as captain, especially if he can land the trophy that has eluded his country since the man himself was a rookie in 2007.
Jos Buttler, by contrast, hasn’t yet shied away from his right to find his feet in any given innings – and his dovetailing with Phil Salt helps hugely in that regard – but his brutal 83 from 38 balls against USA was the sort of range-hitting display that his England teams have habitually drilled themselves to produce in the nets. Perhaps more than any other contemporary great, Buttler is a mood player – prone to deep introspection when his game goes awry, as was the case in a woeful 50-over World Cup campaign, but capable of astonishing peaks when his mind is in the right place. He’s two games away from back-to-back T20 titles, and right now, it feels as though that prospect is empowering him.
Standing in the way of both men and their teams, however, will be two wristspinners in complete command of their respective games. Adil Rashid was England’s key bowler in the 2022 T20 World Cup knockouts, returning a combined analysis of 3 for 42 in eight overs against India and Pakistan, and having started a touch tentatively in the group stage, he’s grown into the tournament with an impeccable command of flight, pace and variation – with his googly rarely failing to hit its mark.
Set against him, however, is the equally wily Kuldeep Yadav, whose scarcity value as a left-arm wristspinner gives him added power to contort the unwary – as England’s Test team discovered to their cost in India earlier this year. Buttler’s own record against Kuldeep – 87 runs off 63 deliveries for three dismissals in all T20s, is a sign of the threat he could pose.
Team news
India have known all tournament long that a Guyana semi-final beckoned if they could do the needful in the Super Eight, and having successfully switched to a spin-heavy line-up since coming through their US-based group stage, they look primed to exploit the Providence conditions. Hardik Pandya’s form as the third seamer provides options where required, and an unchanged XI is surely on the cards.
England, by contrast, may be tempted to tinker with the balance that served them well through the Super Eight, in the expectation that four seamers is at least one more than the conditions will merit. Tom Hartley offers a spare left-arm spin option, but England’s inability to hand him a debut in their rain-affected home series against Pakistan means he’s unlikely to be risked now. More likely is a reinforcement of their batting, amid faith that six front-line bowlers will suffice. Will Jacks does offer an additional spin option, but Ben Duckett’s proven prowess in turning conditions could be an attractive addition.
England (probable): 1 Jos Buttler (capt & wk), 2 Phil Salt, 3 Will Jacks/Ben Duckett, 4 Jonny Bairstow, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Moeen Ali, 7 Liam Livingstone, 8 Sam Curran, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Chris Jordan/Reece Topley.
Pitch and conditions: Will the rain-rules rule?
Spin has been a significant weapon at Providence in this tournament, with 27 wickets falling in five previous matches, at a strike-rate of 17.1, which is bettered among the regular venues only by Arnos Vale in St Vincent.
Unlike the first semi-final in Trinidad, there is no reserve day scheduled for this match, with the ICC citing insufficient travel time ahead of Saturday morning’s final in Barbados. However, because the match is slated for a 10.30am start, there are 250 minutes of extra time to play with, meaning a game of some description should be possible barring heavy rain all day. A minimum of 10 overs per side will be required to constitute a match.
If, however, the match is washed out, India will progress to the final after topping their group in the Super Eight.
Stats and trivia
England lost their only previous completed T20I at the Providence Stadium in Guyana, against West Indies in the opening match of their T20 World Cup campaign in 2010. Though they recovered to claim the title (after a rain-affected escape against Ireland at the same venue), there’ll be no second chances this time out.
Despite that infamous semi-final two years ago, India still boast a positive overall head-to-head against England in T20Is, with 12 wins and 11 losses in their previous 23 encounters.
With his match-winning 92 against Australia, Rohit Sharma (4165) vaulted past Virat Kohli (4103) to the top of the run-scoring leaderboard in T20Is.
Quotes
“Both teams are going to go out there and throw punches at each other for 40-odd overs. It’s going to be a great contest. I think it’s the contest that everyone’s wanted to see, and we’re excited by it.” England’s head coach Matthew Mott
“Wherever we play, whether it’s bilateral series or ICC tournaments, the Indian cricket team is always under pressure. That’s the fact. Most of the guys are used to it, so it’s important to have a little bit of calmness in the dressing room.” India captain Rohit Sharma
Andrew Miller is UK editor of ESPNcricinfo. @miller_cricket
