Potentially 5 places up for grabs
©TM/IMAGO
The Champions League continues to be the pinnacle of club football. There are going to be some big changes to the competition as we know it next season, with a league format replacing the group stage, but it will still have all of Europe’s elite competing for the game’s most profound prize. The new format does however mean there is a strong possibility that the top five teams in the Premier League will all qualify for next season’s Champions League. The race for the two extra places available will be based on European performance this season across all European competitions. As it stands, Germany and Italy are leading the race, but England and Spain are in strong contention ahead of the knockout stages in 2024.
What that does also mean is the race for the Champions League places in the Premier League heats up even further, with teams not knowing whether that fifth place finish will be enough until the back end of the season. Most fans and pundits could probably agree now that the title race is going to be fought out between Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal, and it would take a bit of a capitulation for those clubs to now miss out on the Champions League places. So which clubs will have their eyes on fourth and fifth and who ultimately has enough to get over the line during the business end of the season?
The contenders for the Champions League places
We’ve narrowed it down to six teams that are in contention to finish in the top four or even the top five this campaign. It looks like too much to do for Wolves and Chelsea barring a miraculous end to the season. Meaning the six teams below are likely to fight it out. But what shape are they in, and what are their chances? With 15 games left, we’re getting towards crunch time.
Aston Villa – 46 points
Last five games – Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Palace (A)
Aston Villa under Unai Emery have surprised everybody this season. They’ve defeated Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham this term and sit pretty in fourth place at this moment in time. In fact, only Liverpool and Manchester United have beaten Villa from teams in the current top 8 this campaign. The goals have been flowing, with only the top two in Man City and Liverpool scoring more in the Premier League this season. They hold the advantage right now, but there has been a feeling at times that Emery is overachieving with this group of players, and a long run into the Europa Conference League could test the squad. They must still go to the Emirates, and the Etihad, and play European contenders Brighton in May ahead of their penultimate game of the season at Villa Park against Liverpool. The prolific scoring of Ollie Watkins is sure to aid their pursuit.
Tottenham – 44 points
Last five games – Man City (H), Arsenal (H), Liverpool, (A), Burnley (H), Sheff Utd (A)
Ange Postecoglou has completely changed the atmosphere around Tottenham Hotspur. Supporters had become fatigued by watching negative style football under Antonio Conte and José Mourinho without even achieving consistent results, and with the trophy cabinet still lying bare. This season under the Australian, Spurs play on the front foot, press aggressively and get fans off their seats. And it’s getting results. Tottenham are just two points behind fourth placed Villa and sit in fifth themselves, with a six point cushion to Man United. Whilst Spurs don’t play any of their direct rivals for fourth and fifth spot in their final five games they do face all three of the title challengers back-to-back in late April to early May, which is sure to test their bid. No European football will ease the pressure on Spurs’ squad, and the timely return of club captain Heung Min-Son from the Asian Games will also be a huge boost going into an important period.
Man United – 38 points
Last five games – Newcastle (H), Burnley (H), Palace, (A), Arsenal (H), Brighton (A)
Man United’s season has been pretty disastrous up until now, yet they remain in touch with the top four. Already, 9 Premier League defeats, and out of the Champions League in the group stages, Erik ten Hag’s men have lacked consistency this season. However, with 10 points from the last 15 available, there’s reason to be optimistic that the Red Devils can chase the pack and make the top five. Rasmus Højlund is beginning to find the back of the net, with four goals in his last four league games, and youngsters Kobbie Mainoo and Alejandro Garnacho are looking like youngsters to build the team around. However, the injury to centre-half Lisandro Martínez, who is set to miss around eight matches with an MCL problem, is a huge blow to Man United. Last season’s League Cup winners also face two of their direct rivals in the last five games in Newcastle and Brighton, so a potential opportunity for big six pointers in the closing stages.
West Ham – 36 points
Last five games – Palace (A), Liverpool (H), Chelsea (A), Luton (H), Man City (A)
Losing 3-0 to Man United at Old Trafford last weekend was a massive blow to West Ham’s ambitions of breaking into the top five. However, the Hammers have now played in Europe in some capacity for the last four seasons, and won last term’s European Conference League. The outgoings of Saïd Benrahma and Pablo Fornals in the January window, without any direct replacements, leaves West Ham’s squad thin in attacking areas, and they’d need an almighty push to make up the eight point gap to fifth placed Tottenham. A tough run in which they face Liverpool, and go to Chelsea and Man City in their last five games make a late charge even tougher for David Moyes’ men.
Brighton – 35 points
Last five games – Chelsea (H), Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H), Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H)
Brighton have been the Jekyll and Hyde of the Premier League this season. At times mesmerising. At times calamitous. On their day, under the excellent tactician Roberto De Zerbi, the Seagulls can beat anyone. They have defeated Man United at Old Trafford, and put four past Tottenham. However, their style of play can leave them vulnerable, highlighted by a 4-0 defeat to Luton, and a 6-1 defeat to Aston Villa this season. The South coast side can take confidence from their ability to take results off the big teams in the last 18 months, but they would need to show a lot more consistency on the run in, to make up the nine points on Spurs. They do face a rival Champions League chaser in each of their last three games of the season, so a late flurry of results could turn the tide.
Newcastle – 33 points
Last five games – Man Utd (A), Sheff Utd (H), Burnley (A), Brighton (H), Brentford (A)
Against the odds, Newcastle secured fourth place last season, and brought Champions League football back to St James Park for the first time in 22 years. Nevertheless, being in Europe’s top competition, and subsequently the ‘group of death’ alongside PSG, AC Milan, and Borussia Dortmund has hindered their Premier League campaign this term. Injuries have plagued the Magpies squad, and they’ve been unable to show the consistency of last season. Being out of Europe now could assist their hopes of making it back to the top five, but Eddie Howe’s men would now need an almighty push to make up the 11 point gap to Tottenham and 13 point gap to Aston Villa.
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