We’ve ranked the top-flight managers by their chance of being shown – or showing themselves to – the door, starting with the favourite, according to the best odds currently available at oddschecker.com.
1) Graham Potter
It’s certainly been a difficult start for Potter at Chelsea. Not that he’ll receive much sympathy. Having made the huge step up from Brighton he’s had multiple injuries and daft suspensions to deal with, while attempting to get the best out of an imbalanced and ever-growing squad of players.
Todd Boehly and the board continue to back him both through statements released to the press and in the transfer market. But there is plenty of work to do to integrate all the new recruits and turn Chelsea into something far more formidable than a mid-table outfit. And we remain wildly unconvinced that Potter even wants all the shiny new toys he’s been given.
Chelsea does not currently appear to be a club with a clear, coherent or consistent plan. And the person who usually ends up paying for that kind of conflict is the manager. especially with a 2023 record that now reads one win in 10 games.
But Chelsea are a long-term business project and that will save Graham Potter for now.
2) David Moyes
When a 4-0 win over a relegation rival takes you all the way down from first to second on this list, you know things have been grim. A team that finished sixth then seventh in the Premier League in the previous two seasons, spent £150m in the summer on players like Lucas Paqueta and Gianluca Scamacca, and lost no players of great significance, should not be in a relegation fight. Moyes said after West Ham’s crucial win over Everton that he “feels” for Lampard, probably because it would surely now be him without a job had El Sackico gone the other way. The nature of surrender at Spurs – and his comments after – make it seem like a matter of time regardless.
Though it seems that West Ham are not planning on sacking Moyes yet.
3) Steve Cooper
West Ham’s thrashing of Forest may not have moved Moyes far down the list, but it’s certainly shunted Cooper a fair way up it from eighth before the weekend began. It was a horrible day for Forest, but in Cooper’s defence there have been few of those recently. Feels like an over-reaction.
4) Gary O’Neil
A 4-1 defeat to Manchester City doesn’t move the needle an inch for Bournemouth boss O’Neil. Feels like a very correct reaction. These are not the games that will define him. Nor should the next couple against Arsenal and Liverpool, but you do never know.
5) Antonio Conte
Finds himself in the tricky position of having neither a gallbladder nor a midfield. He won’t be sacked, but will almost certainly leave at the end of the season when Daniel Levy offers him some loose change to make a title charge. No-one appears to be enjoying life at Tottenham, other than record-breaking Harry Kane, who is apparently ready to sign a new contract to ‘repay’ Conte ahead of the Italian leaving to win the Serie A title next season. Currently recuperating in Italy on doctor’s orders, with a growing sense that he may well stay there.
6) Jurgen Klopp
Are we in the Klopp/Liverpool endgame? There are whispers that the club are feeling ‘samesy’ towards him, and that was even before the Anfield humiliation at the hands of Real Madrid. Julian Nagelsmann is the name mentioned as a replacement.
7) Patrick Vieira
Are Palace sleepwalking into a relegation battle? They are without a win in 2023, which at some point will see attention turn to Vieira.
8) Brendan Rodgers
Four straight Premier League defeats after the World Cup was not a good look for Leicester or for Brendan Rodgers, but a 2-2 draw with Brighton, a 4-2 win at Villa and a 4-1 victory over Spurs eased whatever fears he may have had, even if defeats to Manchester United and Arsenal have followed. Still remains the case that the Foxes will have to be really, really bad for the board to sack Rodgers as they can’t really afford his £10m pay-out. A mid-table finish will do just fine and that is still very achievable with the squad at his disposal. Though we kind of think he should then walk.
9) Unai Emery
It would be quite difficult to do less than Steven Gerrard with what is a pretty well-stocked squad. But he had actually done better than every manager bar Mikel Arteta since taking over. Then Leicester turned up. Defeat at Manchester City is fair enough, but defeat to former employers Arsenal and the manner of it will sting. Snapped that losing run at Everton to avoid any silly talk beginning.
10) Julen Lopetegui
Prior to turning over a dreadful Liverpool side, Wolves had beaten the teams they’re supposed to beat, lost to the teams they’re supposed to lose to and drawn with the side on a similar path under fellow Spanish saviour Unai Emery. Coming from behind to defeat Saints plunged one team further into the relegation mire while opening up a five-point gap to the bottom three, but a home defeat to Bournemouth was careless.
11) Sean Dyche
It says rather a lot more about Everton than it does Sean Dyche that he is this high up the list. That Villa defeat was a real pisser, though.
12) Pep Guardiola
“If I defend the people and the club it’s because I work with them. When I asked about suspicions or if our people have done something, then I say to them, ‘tell me’. I said to them ‘if you lie to me, the day after I’m not here, I will be out and you will not be my friend any more.’ But I look at them and believe them 100 per cent from day one. So I defend the club because of that.”
Those odds shortened significantly in the immediate aftermath of the Man City charges? Guardiola was second favourite to leave next at one point. But the dust has settled, any punishment will take years to be doled out and the manager has doubled down on the siege mentality.
13) Thomas Frank
In no danger of the sack, of course. He’s built a proper Premier League squad that plays entertaining football on a shoestring budget. Presumably his odds are (relatively) short because he could be a target for any number of clubs whose managers are more precariously placed. But if they’re Premier League clubs, he won’t be the next manager to leave anyway. But he could very easily be the next next manager to leave if you move fast enough after Moyes or whoever gets the old Spanish archer.
14) Marco Silva
There is far, far more danger of Silva being poached than being sacked as the Cottagers have performed beyond any expectations.
15) Eddie Howe
Took Newcastle from 19th to a comfortable mid-table finish last season and now has them well in with a shout of qualifying for the Champions League, spending smart money on players who have immediately improved the first XI. Stage Two will cost a pretty penny, but he can worry about that later.
16) Erik ten Hag
He appears to have fixed the unfixable. It was assumed there was no manager would could succeed at Manchester United while the Glazers remain, but Ten Hag has shown he could make this work even with the undesirable owners limiting his control of the tiller.
17) Roberto De Zerbi
Can Brighton do no wrong? They sold their two best players from last season and got better, then lost one of the best young managers around, and again, seem to have got better. Even without their leading scorer, they battered Liverpool and their disappointment in drawing with Leicester and Crystal Palace is a pretty good indication as to how far they’ve come.
18) Mikel Arteta
It now feels as though the only way Arteta is leaving Arsenal is if Barcelona come calling. And even they will have to wait. Love him or hate him, he is doing an extraordinary job.