How Pep Guardiola’s “big six” record compares to title winning seasons

Behind Liverpool and Arsenal 

The spoils were shared in the gigantic English Premier League clash between Manchester City and Arsenal on Sunday. Mikel Arteta’s tactical plan to nullify City’s attacking threat was successfully implemented by his players with the Spaniard becoming the only manager to go unbeaten against Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp in a Premier League season. It’s a three-horse race for the title between Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool with Klopp’s men the biggest winners of the weekend after they beat Brighton to move two points clear of the Gunners at the league summit. While Arsenal’s title credentials were boosted on Sunday as they displayed a resilience and mentality that they lacked last season, City’s record against the traditional “big six” received criticism.

Man City have failed to beat four of the “big six” this season

Guardiola has brought unprecedented success to Man City since his appointment ahead of the 2016/17 season. The Spaniard has won five titles in seven seasons in England and he would become the first manager to win four consecutive Premier League titles, if City emerge victorious this season.
City have become renowned for clicking into gear during the business end of the season and although they currently sit third – three points off Liverpool – many people still view them as favourites. City, however, have struggled in the big games this season and they’ve only managed to beat Manchester United from the “big six”. If you exclude sixth placed Man United, Guardiola has failed to record a single win against the top five teams in the Premier League table this season. As the graphic below illustrates, City have picked up just 13 points from their nine games against the “big six”, which averages at 1.33 points per game (ppg) – less than Arsenal and Tottenham.

How Man City’s “big six” record compares to previous seasons

City’s ability to win the big games has been integral to their title successes under Guardiola. The 53-year-old has the best head-to-head record amongst the “big six” across the previous seven seasons – City have ranked top amongst these fixtures in four of those campaigns. As the graphic below shows, City have amassed the most points (130) in games between the “big six”  since Guardiola took charge in 2016.

Their ppg record of 1.86 is considerably higher than this season (1.5) in those big games. Across City’s five title winning seasons under Guardiola they’ve averaged 2.14 ppg against the “big six” and that highlights the huge drop off this season. In the two seasons that City failed to win the title under Guardiola they averaged 1.3 ppg in 2019/20 and 1 ppg in 2016/17. The importance of winning the big games can’t be underestimated as it can derail rivals’ prospects and shatter confidence. City’s ppg record this season remains higher than the two seasons in which they failed to win the title under Guardiola and they’ve only got one more game against a “big six” side, which is a stark difference to Arsenal and Liverpool.

Why Man City’s run-in will provide confidence that Guardiola can make history

Of the three title contenders, Man City have the most favourable remaining nine games on paper. As previously stated, City have mastered hitting their best form during the title run-in and their squad has experience of getting over the line – Arsenal’s youthful squad has been questioned in this regard. After the weekend’s results, Opta’s supercomputer has installed Liverpool as title favourites with City relinquishing that crown for the first time this season. Based on 10,000 simulations, Liverpool have a 48% chance of winning the title, City 34% and Arsenal 18%. In last season’s title race, City and Arsenal were level heading into April before Arteta’s men collapsed and Guardiola’s side ended up winning by a five-point margin.

City are generally formidable in the closing weeks of the season and as the graphic above indicates, they’d be strong favourites to win their remaining fixtures – City have averaged more than 2 ppg under Guardiola against eight of the nine clubs they are still to face. The outlier club is Tottenham Hotspur with City’s away clash against Ange Postecoglou’s men yet to be scheduled. The title race is delicately poised and it’s set to be the most thrilling climax in years with nine games remaining. While City have received criticism following Sunday’s stalemate with Arsenal, it would be foolish to underestimate them as Guardiola’s incredible record speaks for itself.

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