Mahrez deal opens the door
It looked to be the final piece in a complicated transfer puzzle for Manchester City. On Wednesday various media reports suggested that, Man City reached a total agreement to sell Riyad Mahrez for €30 million plus €5m in add-ons to Saudi Pro League club Al-Ahli. The Algerian is set to sign a three-year contract with the Saudi club on Thursday after passing his medical. It is a deal with implications as it was that deal that held up some of the remaining funds that would allow Man City to sign defender Josko Gvardiol from RB Leipzig.
With Riyad Mahrez leaving for Saudi, Man City now have the financial freedom to complete the Josko Gvardiol deal. #MCFC #RBLeipzig expect to receive in excess of €100m. Deal now very close. More to come for @TMuk_news! pic.twitter.com/MxquFxyoZx
— Manuel Veth (@ManuelVeth) July 19, 2023
Although Man City seemingly have endless financial capabilities, new Financial Fair Play regulations and more stringent investigations into the club’s finances meant that there had to be some funds generated first before Gvardiol could be wrapped up. After all, signing the Croatian defender will come at a significant cost. Transfermarkt understands that the Premier League champions are expected to pay in the region of €100m for the 21-year-old center-back.
A fee in that region would make the Croatian, who has a market value of €75m, the most expensive center-back in history. Gvardiol would, in fact, become the first defender to crack the €100m mark and become just the 16th player in history to command a fee in the nine-digit range. Leipzig knew they were able to hold out on a fee in that region as Gvardiol has an exit clause that becomes active next summer and is worth €110m.
Josko Gvardiol: Goalimpact shows potential of future Man City star
The numbers involved are indeed eyewatering, and they beg the question: why is Man City manager Pep Guardiola willing to break the bank for the Croatian? One indicator for Guardiola’s obsession with the Croatian is his Goalimpact. Goalimpact measures the extent to which a player contributes to the goal difference of a team. If a player is assigned a high index value, then the team has a good goal difference when this player is on the pitch compared to matches where this player is not active.
One way of measuring potential impact is by comparing him to current Man City players. Gvardiol’s Goalimpact has been steadily and, through the 2022/23 season, peaked at 154.4. In comparison, Rúben Dias, who is five years older, has an Goalimpact of 179.8, which is considered absolute world-class. Dias’ peak Goalimpact at Gvardiol’s age was 139.4. The comparison highlights the high-level Gvardiol showed this season for Leipzig and also at the World Cup, where he helped lead Croatia to a third-place finish.
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Furthermore, Opta Stats also highlights his importance for DFB Pokal winners RB Leipzig this season. Among defensive categories, the Croatian was second to Willi Orban among all Leipzig center-backs with 96 total duels won, 43 aerial duels won, 2138 total passes and 2423 touches. In other words, Gvardiol was a key player for Leipzig. But there is also a word of caution. There is no doubt that Gvardiol has the ability to become one of the best defenders in the world, but at 21, the center-back still needs time to develop and get used to Guardiola’s system.
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