They have won three consecutive Premier League titles and five of the last six, but Manchester City are currently far from their best – and it’s opened the door for their rivals to pounce.
Unlike their Mancunian rivals United, things aren’t approaching crisis levels. It’s draws, not losses, piling up; three in a row now.
In many ways it seems a freak aberration. You think that surely normal business will resume and City will get back to grinding rival teams down to dust.
After all, City have a particular habit of finding form in the English Spring and storming to the title by racking up ten-straight wins (or more).
But a creaky defence, a midfield unbalanced by costly absences, and a growing tendency to concede late goals has made the usually impenetrable City seem suddenly vulnerable.
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On the weekend, City led Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs 2-1 at halftime and then 3-2 after Jack Grealish’s 81st minute goal. But despite having plenty of chances to kill the game, City failed to do so – and Dejan Kulusevski stole a point for Tottenham with a 90th minute header.
It is the first time since 2017 – Guardiola’s first season at the club – that they have gone winless in three matches.
Worse, City led in all three of those games, marking the first time since 2009 they have led in three-straight matches and failed to win any.
In those three games, City conceded eight goals, while they have kept just two clean sheets in the league since mid-August.
“There’s something just not right at Man City,” Richards told Sky Sports. “They’re too easy to play on the counter attack, too many individual mistakes again.
“Seeing out the game at the end there, it’s all about concentration. You have to concentrate in the key moments and they didn’t do that.
“Credit to Spurs, they were fantastic. They found a way. There are just gaps in that Man City team in midfield and defence. Organisation, at this moment in time, is non-existent.
“There is definitely a drop-off. This City team rely so much on the forward players bailing you out. Normally when it gets to 1-1, the City attackers then go and score two or three.
“At the moment, that’s not happening. But they’re allowing teams back into games and they’ve got to defend better.”
City dominated the Expected Goals (xG) statistic with 2.64 to Spurs’ 0.49. But while Spurs were clinical, Erling Haaland was unusually wasteful; this was the first time in a top-five league game he failed to put a shot on target when having at least five attempts.
City twice hit the woodwork, and could have scored at the death if not for referee Simon Hooper failing to play advantage when Haaland played Jack Grealish through on goal.
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But as Premier League great Gary Neville says, “there’s definitely a pattern” emerging in City’s performances.
Speaking on The Gary Neville Podcast, he said: “We knew Spurs would cause problems here today, but I just thought they would get beat up and blow(n) away. I didn’t think they’d be able to keep City out – and I didn’t think City would concede three.
“But there’s a pattern here today. City allowed the game to drift. They didn’t seem serious enough about the danger that existed in the game. And what that amounts to is complacency.
“That used to happen a lot in seasons after you’ve won the league, and you come back, our manager used to say ‘are you bored?’ You’re waiting for the big game. There are always warning signs.
“The problem is with City, we’ve become accustomed to them not being complacent and not playing like this. There’s definitely a pattern of them not waking up, thinking it’s going to be easy. Nine goals [conceded] in four matches is so unlike Manchester City.”
City conceded 14 goals in their first 18 games this season in all competitions, but have now conceded 10 in their last four games (all comps).
Across those same time periods, the shots City has faced each game has risen from an average of 6.2 per game (first 18 games) to 10 per game (last four games).
And they are conceding goals very late in games. Kulusevski’s came in the 90th minute. Against Liverpool, the equaliser came in the 80th minute. Against Chelsea, it was the 95th.
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Look at the bigger picture of City’s defence this season and the drop-off is clear.
They have conceded 16 times in 14 games this season or 1.14 per game. Last season they conceded 0.87 goals per game. It was 0.68 the season before and 0.84 in 2020-21.
Some might call blame it on plain bad luck. Not Guardiola, who said: “I learn from Johan Cruyff that bad luck in football doesn’t exist.
“People say we are concerned about the chances we are conceding. We actually concede nothing but every chance we do concede is a goal, which makes it more difficult.
“Good teams are not defined by good moments. It’s not the first time we have faced this situation where we are playing good but results don’t come. Always we find a solution, but lately the results don’t come and we are struggling.”
Guardiola’s claim that City ‘actually concede’ no chances is a reasonable point in terms of the Spurs game, given Postecoglou’s men were clinical in finishing low-percentage chances, as evidenced by their ‘expected goals’ metric.
But the increase in the number of shots that opposition teams are managing to attempt against City in recent games shows that City are conceding more chances of late.
Crucial to their struggles is an increased vulnerability to counter-attacks.
John Stones has featured in just four league games this campaign due to an ongoing hip injury, and he was again stuck on the bench against Spurs as he continues to recover.
Stones is a crucial figure for City’s balance, playing as a centre-back who moves to occupy a more traditional centre-defensive midfield position.
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In his absence, Manuel Akanji has been the man promoted into that role – but he is certainly not as adept at stifling counter-attacks further up the pitch, while City miss his pace in the backline when he pushes forward.
As Micah Richards said: “When John Stones plays, he can nullify the threat when he steps into midfield. [Manuel] Akanji is a very good defender, but when he goes into midfield, he doesn’t stop attacks as much as he should. He’s either too far in front of the ball or a little bit too deep.”
Against Spurs – who kept three attackers high up the pitch – Guardiola ended up moving away from having Akanji in the deep-lying midfield position and dropped him back into the defensive line.
That created a follow-on problem as Spurs found more channels to progress the ball through the midfield.
And the balance of the midfield has also been slightly off-kilter this season due to playing Julian Alvarez alongside Erling Haaland. It is a dangerous attacking combination (Alvarez has five assists and four goals this campaign).
But City’s more direct approach this campaign, facilitated in part by playing Alvarez with Haaland, gives rivals more opportunities to counter quickly – and Alvarez does little in the midfield to stifle those attacks. With Ilkay Gundogan having departed the club and Kevin de Bruyne injured, City simply aren’t controlling the midfield the way they used to.
Guardiola will be desperately hoping that Stones will be fit for Thursday morning’s (AEDT) clash with fourth-placed Aston Villa, especially since defensive midfielder Rodri will be absent with suspension after picking up a fifth yellow of the season against Tottenham.
In the last four matches Rodri hasn’t played, City have lost all four. Against a Villa team in sensational home form, any frailties could prove costly – especially since Arsenal face Luton and Liverpool face last-placed Sheffield United during this midweek round.
For now, it’s not a crisis and Guardiola isn’t too worried. Not publicly, anyway.
He has repeatedly emphasised his team is still hungry to compete for the title.
After the Spurs game, he said: “We created a lot of chances, we were aggressive, incredibly concentrated, and the feeling is that we still want to be there [at the top of the table].
“It is a pity. Sometimes football is like life, you do not get what you deserve.”
But Roy Keane told Sky Sports that while the hunger is there, there is “clearly something amiss” at City.
He said: “If you’ve won one or two trophies, you look at that hunger and desire in the dressing room and I think that’s there, certainly from the manager.
“But if you look at Spurs’ first goal today, the goalkeeper has to save it. He would have last year. Haaland missed a couple of chances today, he normally score them.
“So when the players come off it a little bit and you set yourself such high standards over the last few years, which they have and it’s hard to be critical of City because they’ve been so good but when they come off it, you go ‘what’s missing at Man City?’
“They’re still scoring plenty of goals, but the worry over the last three or four weeks is there’s clearly something amiss defensively. If you come off it even one or two per cent, it takes its toll on the results.”
City might only have dipped from their ‘high standards’ by a per cent or two, and they are just three points off the league lead.
But whether it’s complacency or a lack of concentration, an unbalanced midfield or just individual form woes, it’s clear that right now City aren’t playing like the unstoppable juggernaut of recent seasons.
As those struggles continue, doubts over City’s capacity to win a remarkable fourth consecutive title will continue to grow.