The Premier League is entering the home stretch, with almost every team having 10 matches still to play.
For the first time in years, there’s a genuine three-way fight for the title. There’s also a tight battle for the European positions and a heated relegation race. From the top of the league to the bottom, there’s all to play for in a gripping run home.
Watch selected NRL & AFL games, along with every F1 race live in 4K on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial today>>
GUNNERS ADVANCE… JUST – ALL PENALTIES | 01:39
TITLE RACE
1st: Arsenal, 64 pts (P28, 20W, 4D, 4L, +46)
Run home: Manchester City (a), Luton Town (h), Brighton (a), Aston Villa (h), Wolves (a), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a), Everton (h), Chelsea (h – postponed)
2nd: Liverpool, 64 pts (P28, 19W, 7D, L2, +39)
Run home: Brighton (h), Sheffield United (h), Manchester United (a), Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), West Ham United (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a), Wolves (h), Everton (a – postponed)
3rd: Manchester City, 63 pts (P28, 19W, 6D, 3L, +35)
Run home: Arsenal (h), Aston Villa (h), Crystal Palace (a), Luton Town (h), Tottenham (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolves (h), Fulham (a), West Ham United (h), Brighton (a – postponed)
Three teams, three incredible storylines.
This season marks 20 years since Arsenal last won the Premier League, although they came agonisingly close to breaking the drought in the last campaign.
The Gunners sat in pole position but could not hold on, losing two of their final three games to hand the title to Manchester City.
Mikel Arteta’s side are once again back in the title frame and sit top of the ladder at time of writing with the most goals scored in the entire league (70).
Equal on points with Arsenal but in second place is Liverpool, who finished a disappointing 5th last season but have rocketed back into contention.
Yet this is long-serving Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp’s final season at Anfield and his troops would love nothing more than finishing the German’s tenure with his second Premier League title.
One point behind Arsenal and Liverpool is City, who are out to win its sixth league title in seven seasons, a staggering run that underlines its stranglehold on the competition.
So, who takes it from here?
It’s hard to discern who has the easier run of fixtures to round out the season, although all three teams have the added bonus of playing at home in the final game.
However, the title-chasing trio must all face Tottenham, Aston Villa and Wolves, with the first two pushing for Champions League qualification (more on that later). But the key difference is that Arsenal play far more of their games against top-half opponents away from home – including Brighton, Wolves, Spurs and Utd.
The motivational factor of Liverpool’s players wanting to do it for Klopp is worth noting, but the Reds also are without several key players.
Alisson, Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota, Ryan Gravenberch, Ibrahima Konate and Trent Alexander-Arnold all missed the 1-1 draw against Manchester City, with Klopp forced to play a number of youngsters. There’s no shortage of talent, but it could be a step too far for the talented teens to remain flawless in a nervy title race.
Yet City and Arsenal still have to face off – meaning at least one team will cop a setback to their title bid. City did the double over Arsenal last season, but lost 1-0 earlier this season. However, this time around the meeting will be on City’s turf – and their home-ground advantage is a huge boost to their chances of winning both the match and the title.
City have made winning a habit. They’re the best team in Europe if not the world, and they might just make history with a fourth crown in a row.
TITLE PREDICTION: Manchester City
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
4th: Aston Villa, 55 pts (P28, 17W, 4D, 7L, +18)
5th: Tottenham, 53 pts (P27, 16W, 5D, 6L, +20)
6th: Manchester United, 47 pts (P28, 15W, 2D, 11L, 0)
Spurs’ fate is in their hands. With a game in hand, they could move above Villa by a point – and their recent 4-0 battering of the Villans surely delivered a major psychological blow to their top-four rivals.
Villa bounced back with a 4-0 win over 10-man Ajax in the Conference league today.
Both teams face Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool before the season is out. But what could prove a major blow for Spurs is that they face the trio back-to-back: a make-or-break run for their Europe ambitions. A couple of losses could be a major setback – a momentum killer on the run home. Conversely, strong results in those matches could carry them home to the finish line.
Sizzling Spurs sink 4 past Villa | 01:05
Villa play Liverpool (h) and Crystal Palace (a) in their final two matches, while Spurs host Burnley then travel to Sheffield United for their final two fixtures. By that point, the latter pair might already be mathematically relegated. It’s clearly an easier finish for Spurs – and if things are tight, that might just make the difference.
Manchester United are still in the hunt – but only just. They’re eight points off Villa as it stands but could benefit if their rivals drop points against the top teams – especially since United have already played both matches against Villa, Spurs, and Man City. But they also have a tricky run home, with their final two matches against Arsenal and Brighton. And their goal difference – and lack of goals in general – could kill off their dream of a late run to Champions League qualification.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREDICTION: Tottenham
RACE FOR EUROPE
4th: Aston Villa, 55 pts (P28, 17W, 4D, 7L, +18)
5th: Tottenham, 53 pts (P27, 16W, 5D, 6L, +20)
6th: Manchester United, 47 pts (P28, 15W, 2D, 11L, 0)
7th: West Ham United, 43 pts (P28, 12W, 7D, 9L, -4)
8th: Brighton, 42 pts (P28, 11W, 9D, 8L, +6)
9th: Wolves, 41 pts (P28, 12W, 5D, 11L, -2)
10th: Newcastle, 40 pts (P28, 12W, 4D, 12L, +11)
11th: Chelsea, 39 pts (P27, 11W, 6D, 10L, +2)
EUROPA LEAGUE PREDICTION: Aston Villa, Manchester United
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE PREDICTION: West Ham United
As it stands, the top four teams qualify for the Champions League, fifth earns a spot in the Europa League, and sixth qualifies for the Conference League playoff spot.
The winner of the FA Cup is given a Europa League spot – unless they finish in the top five, in which case sixth place in the league is then given a Europa League place (as happened last season).
It’s a similar situation with the EFL Cup – which Liverpool won, meaning they are guaranteed a berth in the Conference League play-offs.
That’s unless they qualify for the Champions League or Europa League thanks to their league finishing position.
In that case – and we’re assuming they do finish in the top four – their Conference League playoff spot goes to the next-highest placed finisher.
But there’s another big caveat this season: the Champions League is expanding and adopting a new format next campaign, meaning two of Europe’s big leagues will gain an extra automatic qualification berth. Which two nations get those spots depends on how well their clubs perform in European competition this season – meaning Premier League clubs will be willing their rivals to keep winning in Europe!
The Premier League could end up with five Champions League spots, plus another for the Europa League (or two, if the FA Cup winner finishes in the CL or EL qualification places) plus another spot for the Conference League (or two, assuming Liverpool finish in the CL or EL qualification spots).
Clear as mud, right?
Kudus rips through SC Freiburg for epic | 00:58
Oh, and winning the CL or Europa League gives you direct entry into next season’s CL, while the winner of the Conference League gets a place in the Europa League (like West Ham this season, who got a EL spot despite finishing 14th in the league).
The ‘top four’ race is dead. Now it’s a race for the top … eight? Nine? 11 (yes, it’s technically possible for 11 Premier League teams to make it to Europe).
Either way, we’re tipping Spurs to finish in fourth, as we said above.
Villa have a significantly harder run home than Man United (their remaining opponents’ average league place is currently 8.3, Utd’s is 11.3) – but they’ve scored 59 goals, 20 more than United so far. Ollie Watkins’ 16 goals and 10 assists in 28 matches is a huge part of that – but was forced off with a cut on his knee during their 4-0 Conference League over Ajax this morning. Luckily coach Unai Emery said it doesn’t appear to be too serious, and if Watkins can keep fit and firing, Villa seem likely to finish above United’s misfiring offence.
Below them, West Ham and Brighton both have brutal fixtures ahead. The pair have made a habit out of scraping draws in tough matches, which could prove crucial in picking up points in the final few matches. But the Hammers’ defence is conceding far too frequently – their 49 goals against is more like a bottom-half team than one chasing Europe. It can partially be explained by big losses to Fulham (5-0 in December) and Arsenal (6-0 last month). And in their last three league games, they’ve scored nine goals – not to mention today’s 5-0 Europa League win over Freiburg to book their place in the quarterfinals. If they can tighten up their defence, they might just hold onto their position.
But below the Hammers, Wolves and Newcastle especially have significantly easier runs home. Newcastle are scoring plenty of goals – as many as Spurs or Villa, for example – and could make a late charge. With a goal difference of +11 – the best of any team outside the top five – they could sneak in to the European places. Recent games have made one thing clear: there’s going to plenty of goals at both ends of the field, and it’s never going to be boring.
RELEGATION
15th: Brentford, 26 pts (P28, 7W, 5D, 16L, -12)
16th: Everton, 25 pts* (P28, 8W, 7D, 13L, -10)
17th: Nottingham Forest, 24 pts (P28, 6W, 6D, 16L, -16)
18th: Luton Town, 21 pts (P28, 5W, 6D, 17L, -18)
19th: Burnley, 14 pts (P28, 3W, 5D, 20L, -35)
20th: Sheffield United, 14 pts (P28, 3W, 5D, 20L, -50)
* = Everton were deducted six points for breaching PSR rules
Barring one of the greatest escapes in Premier League history, it seems a certainty Burnley and Sheffield United are set for an instant return to the Championship.
Sure, it’s possible – but both teams are 10 points off safety at this point, and they simply look out of their depth.
That leaves us with one spot up for grabs when it comes to relegation.
As it stands, Luton Town round out the bottom three – and the Hatters’ remaining 10 fixtures are the most difficult out of all the teams jostling for survival.
The average league position of Luton’s remaining opponents this season is 9.8, the highest figure of the group, with three of those fixtures including daunting trips to Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City.
A comparison between Luton’s relegation rivals in terms of average league position makes for worrying reading.
Nottingham Forest’s final 10 games spits out an average position of 12.7, while Brentford and Everton’s rivals have average positions of 12.6 – effectively the ‘easiest’ remaining fixtures of any team in the league.
Luton also suffered a horrific meltdown against Bournemouth yesterday. 3-0 up at halftime, they looked set to move out of the relegation zone – only to concede four goals without reply. It was the first time in 21 years that a team had lost from three goals up.
Cherries pull off insane 3-goal comeback | 02:11
However, the fight for survival could be determined off the field as Forest were charged with breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations (PSR).
Everton were initially docked 10 points before it was later reduced to six after an appeal for a similar breach, setting a precedent Forest will be desperate to avoid.
The hearing for Forest’s PSR breaches has begun, with a resolution expected in the coming weeks.
Brentford have just come out of a torrid run of games in which they played Tottenham, Manchester City twice, Liverpool, West Ham, Chelsea, Wolves and Arsenal in consecutive games.
However, their final games are much kinder and they do not play a team higher than 12th on the table in their last six games, so expect Thomas Frank’s side to stay up.
Everton have a rather favourable run-in, with back-to-back games against relegation rivals Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United before a final day fixture away to Arsenal.
Toffees boss Sean Dyche is no stranger to a relegation battle and if it weren’t for a points deduction they’d be comfortably away from the drop, which has us believing they will preserve their Premier League status.
It essentially leaves a shootout between Luton and Forest for 17th place, with the two also set to play each other in a proverbial six-pointer on March 17.
Although Luton have shown more fight and desire than most across the Premier League this season, we’re predicting Forest’s superior quality will steer them to safety.
RELEGATION PREDICTION: Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United