Samuel Szmodics has had defenses across the championship tremble this season. That’s no easy feat, and of course, like many before, szmodics would see or be linked to a move, and with Blackburn being too down the table, it could be difficult to keep him. Of course, the big thing is that Sammie has never played in the top flight, and when you are 28 and turning 29, you see yourself eyeing that big move before it might get too late for one.
But we are here not to discuss Sammie’s potential intentions or who her suitors could be. But we discuss what makes him the player that teams in the top flight want to invest or bet on.
Starting with Data: The Numbers that the Eyes see
Szmodics is a pocket player. That’s the first impression you get when you see him. He operates in Zone 14 (the central zone as we see in the positional map in Pic 1) quite a lot, because of his style, which sees him picking the ball from left halfspaces. If you look at his progressive carries, you see a player who likes driving the ball a lot. And then, of course, off the ball, he loves pitching in his defensive duties in similar areas.
So, where do the goals come from?? That’s the whole point of my observations in the first few lines: Szmodics was/is never a typical goalscoring forward. Now let me elaborate in a better way: Szmodics has been Rovers fundamental progressor, both in terms of carrying the ball and moving it forward in the form of passes. In fact, he’s the best progressor on the pitch in terms of carries and cuts, and he’s close in the same when it comes to passes after Callum Brittain.
Pic 2: Rovers Players sorted by most Progressive actions (via Fbref)So this brings us to the 1st conclusion that Szmodics sees the ball more than anyone else in his team even taking exceptions of bar Brittain or Tyrhys Dolan. So Szmodics as a goalscorer has depended on seeing the ball a lot and fundamentally his low xAG of 0.12 ( his expected assisted goals, or rather the expected value that Szmodics creates chances for others on a per90 basis) adds to the fact that Szmodics was/is a perfect progressor that’s seen goals this season.
What the Eyes Tell: The more deeper story and his Tactical Fit
Vid 1: Szmodics Footage (Via: @BrazilScout/YT)
Szmodic’s footage tells the same story as his data tells us. Szmodics likes the Zone 14 pockets, often operating with combinations with his teammates, yet always in the middle of things with the ball, without which his goals don’t really come to fruition. It’s not that I dismiss his goalscoring abilities, which I actually believe came to the fore this season; it’s the fact that his goals are more the result of himself being the 3rd man in the act of circulating the ball for Rovers.
In a nutshell, watching the above footage immediately tells you that Sammie doesn’t manufacture a lot for his teammates, and his own goals aren’t manufactured without him being in the thick of things. So that means if teams buy Sammie to act as some Aguero-esque mobile hitman, he’s most likely to fail, but imagining him as a Bobby Firmino-esque facilitator that can find the net at a better rate in a top-flight league, now that’s something any team should pay Sammie to do.
Sammie Szmodics – Conclusion
Ultimately, any investment in a player must always be looked upon beyond the numbers they have produced or the level they have played. I like Szmodics as a player, but teams that would buy him believing he would replicate plenty of goals in the top flight without knowing his tactical fit can damage his career. Mind you, he’s turning 29 in September, and Sammie wouldn’t want to waste his peak years in a club without fitness.
I envisage Szmodics doing great where he can play alongside two forwards ahead of him on teams that use systems like 4-2-1-3, 4-4-1-1, 3-4-1-2, and 4-2-3-1. These systems have inherent tactical characteristics that will suit Szmodics to replicate his best characteristics, ideally doing his best in zone 14.
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