It’s around about the time of year when the engraver at the Circuit of the Americas practices writing ‘Marc Márquez’ into Americas Grand Prix winners trophy.
There are no certainties in sport, but the Spaniard dominating in Texas has historically been as close as you can get.
Only twice in the entire history of the track has he failed to mount the top step: in 2019, when he crashed out of a comfortable lead, and last year, when he was racing with a right arm that had set 34 degrees out of alignment — though he still finished sixth at one of the calendar’s most physically demanding races.
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A fully fit Márquez, even on a dodgy Honda, signals a return to regular programming.
Except he’s not fully fit — in fact he’s not turning up at all this year as he recovers from his self-inflicted hand injury sustained at the first round of the season last month.
The same goes for Enea Bastianini, who will also sit out this weekend’s race to recuperate from a shoulder fracture picked up at the same race.
Bastianini is the reigning Circuit of the Americas winner, having famously “pushed like a bastard” to pip Álex Rins and Jack Miller last year before adjourning to “eat some hamburger”. It was the second of four standout victories on a year-old Gresini Ducati that put him in unlikely title contention until the final few races of the year and won him a promotion to the factory team this season.
On updated machinery he was tipped to be a title contender and a thorn in the side of title-winning teammate Francesco Bagnaia. But a disastrous crash with Luca Marini in the very first sprint of the year has left him not only without point but having not seen the chequered flag so far this season.
Their absences leave only Rins as a historical Texas winner on the grid, though his effectiveness is blunted by his satellite LCR Honda bike.
That means the competition for victory has blown wide open for the 2023 Americas Grand Prix — and that puts an interesting twist on the unfolding championship battle.
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BAGNAIA’S GOLDEN CHANCE TO KNUCKLE DOWN
Francesco Bagnaia started this season as the reigning world champion with a brand-new self-assured mindset, but his unpressured crash last time out in Argentina looked painfully Pecco 1.0.
Not only was it one of those inexplicable offs that he said afterwards he couldn’t understand, but it was also totally unnecessary from second place on the road.
In a championship as long as this, Bagnaia should have understood well that there was no need to push hard enough to crash with 20 points in the bag. Instead he lost the early title lead to first-time winner Marco Bezzecchi on the satellite VR46 Ducati.
Some might have had flashbacks to the error-prone start to last season that put Bagnaia 91 points down on Fabio Quartararo before his monumental comeback.
But the crucial difference this year is that his nominal title rivals are showing no signs of rising to capitalise.
When asked at the start of the year who he thought was most likely to challenge his championship, three names came immediately to Bagnaia’s mind: Márquez, Bastianini and Quartararo.
Neither of the first two has finished a Sunday grand prix yet, with all Márquez’s seven points coming from his podium finish in the sprint in Portugal.
Bagnaia, thanks largely to his dominant performance that weekend, has already accumulated 41 points, and with Marc and Enea unable to score until the end of the month at the earliest, they could easily be more than a full weekend of points adrift by the time they return.
And then there’s Quartararo, the man who came so close to being a double world champion on his outgunned M1 last year.
The signs out of Yamaha this season have been chaotic and difficult to read. The pre-season started very positively with a new engine but turned sour very quickly as the team and its riders struggled to find a set-up that got the most from the extra power, negating its benefit.
On the final day of testing Quartararo resorted to using last year’s aerodynamic kit and rediscovered some pace, but it’s left him undercooked for the season. The team is still eyeing a bespoke 2023 configuration too.
It’s led to some erratic results. While the Frenchman was sure there was more than eighth on offer in Portugal but for circumstance, he was genuinely and mystifyingly off the pace in Argentina, where he was fortunate to collect seventh on Sunday after coming through Q1 on Saturday.
Meanwhile teammate Franco Morbidelli, who’s been no match for Quartararo in their partnership, was a standout performer and is now the leading Yamaha in the standings.
“I feel like it‘s not my bike anymore,” Quartararo said glumly as he toiled during the weekend, which he ended 10th in the standings with just 18 points.
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A similar scenario is playing out at Aprilia. Last year’s title challenger Aleix Espargaró is yet to make an impression, while teammate Maverick Viñales is fifth on the table and 18 points off the title lead — though neither was sure why the bike struggled so much in the low-grip conditions at Termas de Río Hondo, where it excelled last season.
So the expected contenders are scattered and have so far been unable to punish Bagnaia for his crash, even if we’re only two round and four races in.
And with two key riders out this weekend, Quartararo’s Yamaha so far unconvincing and the potency of the Aprilia combination unclear, this weekend Pecco has a golden chance to put a bit of breathing space between him and them.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER DUCATI RIDERS?
But it’s also not as easy as saying the early collapse of the pre-season title favourites is paving the way for Bagnaia to take the championship by the scruff of the neck in the opening few weekends.
After all, there are no fewer than seven other Ducati bikes he’ll need to contend with to make it to the top step.
The Desmosedici is the class of the field, and all six of the Sunday podium places so far this season have been occupied by Ducati riders.
While no-one is prepared to go out on a limb and call a satellite rider a bona fide title challenger, Bagnaia isn’t willing to call himself the favourite among them just because he’s the reigning champion.
“I haven‘t earned that right yet,” he told Autosport. “If I show that I am the one who is always in front with this bike, that only I win and that I win three titles in a row, then we will have to talk about Pecco.”
Bezzecchi leads the championship and is now a grand prix winner. Johann Zarco is third after a gutsy late charge in Argentina. Alex Márquez scored his first pole at the previous round and must be aiming to at least replicate Bastianini’s 2022 feats on this year’s Gresini. Jorge Martin also can’t be discounted in any given race.
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“All Ducati riders are fast — in the first place because they are very good, and secondly because our motorcycle adapts to many different riding styles,” Bagnaia told Autosport.
Whether they’re championship material this year is unclear, but they’re certainly all victory contenders. And for as long as that’s the case, they’re a threat to Bagnaia’s ability to stamp his authority on this championship before the anointed title challengers have a chance to regroup and aim upwards.
How big a threat? We’ll see at this weekend’s Americas Grand Prix.
HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
Every practice session, qualifying, the sprint and the race of the 2023 Americas Grand Prix is live and ad-break free during racing on Kayo. New to Kayo and Fox Sports.
First and second practice are on Saturday at 1:45am and 6am (AEST).
Sunday starts with final free practice at 1:10am ahead of qualifying at 1:50am and the sprint at 6am.
The Americas Grand Prix starts at 5am on Monday.