MotoGP’s gruelling Asian triple-header is in the books, but it’s difficult to know what to make of what’s turned into a rollercoaster of a championship.
Let’s start with what we know for certain.
After 17 weekends there are only three riders still in contention for the title. Marco Bezzecchi, at 74 points down, is only just mathematically in it and faces elimination at the next round in Malaysia.
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Really this is a straight fight between reigning champion and title leader Francesco Bagnaia and challenger Jorge Martin.
With just 13 points separating them and three rounds remaining, the championship is surely going down to the wire.
And that’s about all we know for sure.
Reflecting on the three-race chapter — Indonesia, Australia and Thailand — that brought us to this moment is complicated.
Consider what should be a relatively straightforward question like: who has the momentum?
You might be tempted to say Martin arrives at the final break of the season with the wind at his back, having won both races in Thailand to reduce his championship deficit.
And yet Bagnaia was the highest scorer over the triple-header.
Pecco started the Indonesian Grand Prix earlier this month leading the championship by just three points. He left Thailand with 13 points in hand, his margin having more than quadrupled.
Martin had the better average finishing position in that triple header, claiming an average result 0f 2.0 when he’s seen the flag to Bagnaia’s 3.3.
That, however, doesn’t account for the Spaniard’s failure to finish in Indonesia. Resultantly he’s scored 54 per cent of the theoretical maximum points haul over the last three races to the Italian’s 63 per cent.
Whichever way you try to cut it, it’s complicated.
But one potentially important trend has emerged in the second half of the season that could indicate which way the championship winds are blowing.
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THE CURVE BALL THAT COULD COST BAGNAIA EVERYTHING
Let’s look first at the points picture.
Current championship standings
Francesco Bagnaia: 389 points
Jorge Martin: 376 points
Having established a very healthy 66-point lead in a chaotic and unpredictable first half of the season, Bagnaia has seen his margin whittled away as the series has settled into its rhythm.
Of course his non-start in Barcelona after his frightening first-lap crash played a role, but the championship has tightened even as he’s recovered to full fitness.
The underlying cause has been hiding in plain sight.
The 2023 campaign is the first to feature sprint races at every weekend. Unlike in Formula 1, where the six sprints are little more than novelties, in MotoGP they’re integral to the outcome, adding almost 50 per cent more points to the season.
It’s a major curve ball for defending champion Bagnaia. His racing style is all about being an irresistible force over a grand prix distance, perfectly all variables to force the race onto his own terms.
An elbows-out scrapper he is not — not generally speaking anyway. He’s more of a tactician; the thinking man’s rider.
But that’s no longer what the championship calls for.
The sprints are all about aggression and flat-out racing. Though Bagnaia’s isn’t afraid of an on-track battle, it’s not exactly what he’s all about.
Looking at the breakdown of points won this season illustrates the difference.
Points from grands prix
Francesco Bagnaia: 266 points
Jorge Martin: 241 points (-25)
Clearly Bagnaia is mastering Sunday. But Saturday is a different story.
Points from sprints
Jorge Martin: 135 points
Francesco Bagnaia: 123 points (-12)
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BUT THE GRANDS PRIX AREN’T ENOUGH…
You might be inclined to look at the points breakdown above and assume that Bagnaia is probably safe given he’s scoring more than twice as many points on Sundays as Martin is earning back on Saturdays.
Indeed there was an assumption at the start of the season that winning on Sunday would render the Saturday results largely irrelevant.
But again, it’s more complicated.
Let’s look at those same broken-down numbers but for the last five rounds only.
Points from grands prix, last five rounds
Francesco Bagnaia: 85 points
Jorge Martin: 81 points (-4)
Bagnaia still leads, but only just. And the picture is much worse in the sprints.
Points from sprints, last five rounds
Jorge Martin: 48 points
Francesco Bagnaia: 21 points (-27)
Now we’re starting to see some signs of momentum.
Accounting for the fact one of the last five sprints was called off — in Australian due to wind — Martin is gaining on Bagnaia at 6.75 points per Saturday, but Bagnaia is answering back by less than a point on Sunday. It’s enough of a strike rate to overturn his deficit in the next three races.
It’s not the sprint alone that’s causing Bagnaia trouble; it’s also qualifying.
Qualifying is now extra important given it sets the grid for two races every weekend. While Bagnaia is capable of devastating speed — he has the most poles of any rider this year — he’s not unrivalled in this department.
As Martin’s proven, he’s arguably the grid’s fastest rider over one lap, and he’s enjoying a formidable purple patch of form.
Average qualifying position, last five races
Jorge Martin: 2.2
Francesco Bagnaia: 5.4
Starting one row back is easily made up on Sunday when you’re Bagnaia and you have the skill set to master the long race. But on Saturday it’s considerably harder. And when you’re in a pack of Ducati bikes all capable of similar pace flat out in the short races, the risk required to make up ground is very high.
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…AND MARTIN IS LEARNING FAST
With all that said, it’s premature to say the signs are bad for Bagnaia. Momentum might not be with him as forcefully as it was at the start of the season, but it’s still within his grasp to consolidate his lead with three rounds remaining.
However, there is one asterisk still to be resolved in the final three rounds of the year.
To some extent Bagnaia has been able to take for granted that Martin isn’t as formidable over a race distance. He’s been able to let the entire weekend come to him by Sunday afternoon, even if it means having to battle through Q1 and absorbing good but not great sprint results. The big points, after all, are on Sunday, and he knows that by the time he gets there, he’s almost always fastest on track.
But Martin is showing signs of figuring out how to unpick this advantage too.
The Spaniard’s senseless crash from the lead in Indonesia was thought at the time to be the prototypical Martin situation: absolutely rapid all weekend but too crash prone on Sunday to turn speed into points.
It played nicely into the narrative when Bagnaia recovered from 13th on the grid to win the race, swinging the points back in his favour with a classic Pecco performance.
It was a similar story in Australia, where Martin erroneously chose the soft rear tyre and used it hard in the opening phase of the race to build what looked like an unassailable lead — only to have the tyre expire in the final laps, leaving him fifth.
But in Thailand the story was different. He dominated the entire weekend, topping every session and winning the sprint, but in the race he showed a quality rarely deployed from his arsenal: restraint.
He resisted the temptation to bludgeon pursuers Brad Binder and Bagnaia with his raw speed, knowing that pushing too hard too early would leave him defenceless late.
Instead he perfectly balanced the enticing open road ahead of him while keeping his pursuers just at arm’s length. Momentarily he got that balance wrong. and Binder slipped past into the lead, but a small increase in aggression got him back into first place, where he resumed that delicate equilibrium to take the flag in first place by just 0.253 seconds.
It was an expertly judged victory. Even a Bagnaia-esque victory.
The Thai Grand Prix left us with a tantalising question to consider in the week before the sport reconvenes in Malaysia.
Which rider is the most complete?
If Bagnaia can get back on top of his one-lap pace, he’ll have what it takes to grind out this unpredictable title.
But if Martin’s racecraft is the real deal, we might be witnessing his arrival as MotoGP’s newest world champion.