Red Bull’s dominance over the last two seasons means their rivals have a mountain to climb to beat them in 2024 – a mountain that has been described as Everest by Mercedes boss Toto Wolff.
When three days of testing kick off tonight (5.50pm AEDT), teams and fans will get their first insight into whether scaling Mount Red Bull is an achievable prospect this year.
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It is always hard to draw real conclusions from testing.
After all, teams are using it to gather data rather than merely show off their real pace – indeed, many will be ‘sandbagging’ or making their cars appear slower than their true potential, by using fuel loads, tyre options, DRS (or not), engine modes and other tricks.
But there’s no doubt that the massive gambles that teams have taken with the direction of their car development for 2024 means this year’s testing in Abu Dhabi will involve plenty of intrigue.
After beating Ferrari to second in the constructor’s championship last season, Mercedes chief Toto Wolff said in December: “You know, when you win P2, it reminds you that you lost P1.
“I think we need to take it on the chin, be humble about it, and consider today as a good day. Nevertheless, there is a Mount Everest to climb in order to catch up with Red Bull.”
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But Red Bull have taken a drastically different approach to their all-conquering car from the last two campaigns since new regulations were introduced.
While rivals like Mercedes and Ferrari have attempted to create cars that more closely mirror the style and set-up of that dominant Red Bull, the champions themselves have made a radical departure from their tried-and-tested approach.
Instead, the new Red Bull in many ways appears to have borrowed aspects of the Mercedes cars of the last two seasons – designs that were largely disastrous for Mercedes themselves.
Former performance engineer at McLaren then head of race strategy at Aston Martin, Bernadette Collins, said Red Bull might have played a ‘joke’ on their rivals when they unveiled their new RB20 – and they might actually roll out a far more similar car to their previous two years.
Collins, now an analyst with SkyF1, said: “Years in F1 have made me suspicious. So let’s see the car that rocks out on day one at Bahrain because I’m not sure it’s going to be that car. This could just be a ‘oh we’re just having a joke’.”
But she sent a stern warning to Red Bull, arguing they might have fallen into the same ‘myth’ that plagued Mercedes.
“If they do rock out with that car then you know it’s a brave, brave move because they could have easily continued to develop the car they had, and that would have been the safer bet.
“The worry is … Mercedes obviously felt it could work when they put that first car out with it.
“Something is amiss between what they thought that car could do and what it could actually do … Have Red Bull done the miss in the other direction?”
“I’m not surprised that they’ve been experimenting with it. I’m just surprised that they’ve gone with it – if they go with it. They’ve clearly seen something that means they think they can beat their previous developed car in it.
“But is there a myth in the simulation that has also convinced Mercedes over the past two years to stick with it?”
While the field is copying Red Bull from the last two years, the champs are striking out on a bold new path.
If it works, then Red Bull might just waltz to another title.
If it doesn’t, then scaling Everest won’t seem quite so out of reach.
The truth won’t be realised until the season proper begins. But testing will give the first indications of what the season has in store.
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F1 TESTING COVERAGE TIMES
Day 1 – 5.50pm Wednesday AEDT
Night 1 – 10.55pm Wednesday AEDT
Day 2 – 5.50pm Thursday AEDT
Night 2 – 10.55pm Thursday AEDT
Day 3 – 5.50pm Friday AEDT
Night 3 – 10.55pm Friday AEDT
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