MotoGP’s spring break is over, and this weekend it’s back to work at one of the sport’s most demanding circuits: the Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello.
The evocatively named corners are renowned, but the front straight is properly famous. You won’t go faster on a MotoGP bike anywhere else on the calendar, with the speed record clocked at 363.3 kilometres per hour last year at the braking zone for turn 1.
This is no ordinary circuit.
And MotoGP returns with no ordinary championship picture.
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Had this been any other season, we’d be wondering whether Francesco Bagnaia is back on the ropes, having crashed out of two grands prix from strong positions already.
But thanks to his collection of sprint podiums, including two wins, the reigning champion is still the title leader, holding one point over compatriot Marco Bezzecchi.
Sprint victories are also keeping Brad Binder elevated in third and in with a shout for KTM despite only one Sunday podium. Likewise Jorge Martin in fourth is being kept afloat by his Saturday earnings rather than his work on Sunday.
The new sprint format is certainly proving influential in the title battle, and if it’s short, fast races the sport wants, Mugello, with one of the highest average speeds on the entire calendar to go with its mammoth top speed, will be the pinnacle for Saturday action.
CAN BAGNAIA REIGNITE THE ITALIAN PASSION?
There are few places on the MotoGP tour as evocative as Mugello. The circuit is a spectacular venue for a motorcycle race, and the Tuscan countryside setting couldn’t be more picturesque.
But a little of the sheen came off the iconic Italian venue last year when it hosted fewer than 50,000 fans on race day.
That’s notably down from the 100,000-odd who used to cram into the track for the last decade or so.
Of course they were all dressed in Valentino Rossi’s trademark fluorescent yellow back then.
Despite home team Ducati dominating the sport since Rossi’s departure and no fewer than six full-time Italians in the field, that support just hasn’t translated into something sustainable, at least on the evidence of last year.
It’s a situation made only sadder by Mugello’s position on the calendar between the French Grand Prix, which was absolutely rammed despite the parlous state of Fabio Quartararo’s campaign, and the German and Dutch grands prix, which welcomed roughly 100,000 people apiece through the gates on their respective race days last year.
While there are plenty of speculative reasons as to why Italian fans didn’t turn up in their usual numbers last year, soon we’ll be able to verify at least one of them: the absence of a world champion.
This time last season Bagnaia arrived having just crashed out of victory contention in France and having dropped to 46 points adrift and seventh in the standings. It wasn’t looking like his year.
But 12 months on he’s the reigning world champion after an exhilarating comeback and will arrive as the points leader — and with the popular compatriot Bezzecchi, racing for Rossi’s team, one point behind him in second place.
Bagnaia and Ducati will be comfortable favourites to win their home race.
You’d think that’d be enough to get the Italian fans up and about. Let’s wait and see.
CAN APRILIA STEP UP?
If it’s not going to be a Ducati this weekend — and that’s an enormous if — Italian fans will likely be able to cheer on their other home team, Aprilia, which still harbours hope for an unlikely title challenge this year if it can only string together some clean weekends.
After playing the role of title contender for much of last year, Aleix Espargaró has yet to really turn up in 2023 despite the bike taking at least a small step forward season on season.
The Spaniard hasn’t finished on the podium in the first races to date, nor has he made it into the top three in any of the sprints. His best grand prix finish has been a pair of fifths at the previous two rounds, and pole at the Spanish Grand Prix in Jerez has been the highlight of his year so far.
It’s been a frustrating run, and even Espargaró has admitted there’s been more on the table for him than what amounts to 11th and 52 points down on the title table.
“I really think that I can win [this weekend],” he said, per Crash. “There are no excuses.
“I’m not at the level that I expect, not at the level of the bike.
“I’m fast, but I need to improve a little bit, especially [when it comes to] preparing the races. I need to improve my qualifying to deliver better results on Sunday.
“At the end, the points are on Sunday. It’s my time to improve the situation. I have a good bike. I love the bike and I have a good team. It’s my fault. I need to improve.”
This have gone only mildly better for Maverick Viñales, who opened the season with a podium but has failed to finish his last two rounds, albeit with neither DNF really his fault. It’s left him only seven points further up the road compared to his teammate.
This time last year Aprilia was leading the teams championship and Espargaró was just four points off the top of the riders title table.
It’s now time-critical to turn this year’s form around lest it completely lose the initiative.
CAN JACK MILLER TAKE HIS SHOT AT A RARE PIECE OF HISTORY?
KTM has had a far stronger start to 2023 than most would have expected, with Binder delivering a pair of sprint victories and both riders combining for a double podium at the Spanish Grand Prix.
For Jack Miller, it’s brought a rare piece of history tantalisingly close, with the Aussie in the running to join only four other riders to have won races on three different manufacturers in the premier class.
Only four-time champions Mike Hailwood and Eddie Lawson and multiple race winners Randy Mamola and Loris Capirossi have managed the feat.
Miller, with wins on a Marc VDS Honda and a factory Ducati, could join them if he can stitch up a win for KTM.
But despite the accolade being so rare, he’s up against another rider who can beat him to it this year: Viñales had wins with Suzuki and Yamaha before landing at Aprilia.
If you wanted to be especially picky, you could argue that none of the above-named four riding stars competed in MotoGP as we know it, which would mean Miller and Viñales are competing to be the first of the modern era to do the triple.
Both riders are surely in victory contention this year.
However, neither has a stellar record in Italy. Other than Viñales’s second place in 2017, neither he nor Miller has managed higher than sixth.
From KTM’s perspective, Mugello also hasn’t been a happy hunting ground, with the Austrian team having accrued a single podium and having never otherwise got close to the top step in six seasons of competition.
But this year’s RC16 is a far more competitive machine than its predecessors, and Miller in particular is motivated to score after dropping some potentially significant results in the United States and France.
Breaking KTM’s Mugello hoodoo would be a memorable way to grab a little slice of history for himself.
CASUALTY WARD: WHO’S STILL OUT?
The week of MotoGP’s resumption started with confirmation that Pol Espargaró isn’t yet ready to return to racing after his horrendous injuries sustained during practice at the season-opening Portuguese Grand Prix.
Espargaró broke his back, neck, ribs and jaw. He reportedly had to have several teeth extracted owing to the jaw injury, which in turn had been hampering his hearing, and subsequently spent around a month with his mouth wired closed.
His Gas Gas team had originally planned to welcome the Spaniard back onto the bike this month, with Mugello pegged as a possible return date, but it became clear about a month ago that his injuries, particularly to his spine, were too serious to contemplate getting back on the bike in Italy.
But the 31-year-old remains hopeful he’ll be suiting up on the RC16 before the end of the month.
“My original plan was to return for one of these next three races before the summer break, and this continues to be the idea,” he said.
“The most important thing is to be physically ready, and this call means I have a few more days to keep working at home and arrive in the best form possible and as soon as possible.”
But there’s good new on the rest of the casualty list, with five riders returning from injury and hopeful of going the distance.
Bagnaia is the biggest name among them after injuring his angle in a crash with Viñales in France. He’s escaped without missing any track time.
His teammate, Enea Bastianini, will also have a second crack at coming back from his Portuguese GP shoulder fracture. He was forced to withdraw after practice in Jerez in April in severe pain, but the Italian is hopeful the extra recovery time — it’ll have been almost 11 weeks since he picked up hi injury — will see him through this weekend.
“After so many weeks off it won‘t be easy,” he cautioned. “In any case, I’m motivated. It’s our home race and I’m aiming to do well.”
RNF teammates Miguel Oliveira and Raúl Fernández have both been declared fit, the former from a dislocated shoulder in April and the latter following arm pump surgery last month.
Luca Marini will also be on the bike for practice but is taking a wait-and-see approach with his wrist, which he broke when he fell off in France and was cleaned up by Alex Márquez.
The VR46 rider says his tendons and ligaments in his thumbs will be decisive in whether he can make it through the weekend.
HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
The 2023 Italian Grand Prix is live and ad-break free during racing on Kayo and Fox Sports.
Friday practice is at 6:45pm (AEST) and 11pm.
Saturday starts with free practice at 6:10pm followed by qualifying at 6:50pm before the sprint at 11pm.
The Sunday warm-up is at 5:45pm ahead of the grand prix at 10pm.