Marc Márquez has made official his decision to leave Honda for Ducati factory team Gresini. Now the clean-up begins.
In so many ways Márquez’s switch is the opposite of a blockbuster move. He’s leaving the MotoGP’s most successful constructor for a satellite minnow, and to get there he’s taking a reported mega pay cut of as much as 98.5 per cent.
But the reality of the situation, with Honda having totally lost its way and Márquez running out of time to maximise his title-winning potential, made it an obvious choice. On a Gresini he’ll have the chance to win more races and possibly the title, and he’ll be the biggest fish in the 2025 rider market.
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The reverse side of the coin is more complicated.
An opening at the factory Honda team should always a big deal. Yet the Japanese marque will have to convince a prospective rider that the bike spurned by the one of the greatest of all time will do just fine for them — that the project Márquez lost faith in is worth their time.
The task is made more complicated by the fact the rider market is almost completely settled. The factory seat is the last one up for grabs, with all 21 others already under contract for 2024.
Honda still has some prestige of course. Despite the deep, dark hole it’s found itself in, there’s this lingering faith that it can’t be far from turning it around. It’s certainly not short on the resources to match Ducati.
It has money too, especially now Márquez’s stipend is no longer on the books.
Promise and pay — are they enough to convince a rider to break a contract and make a change?
With five rounds to go, starting with this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, expect negotiations to ramp up for the final piece of the 2024 puzzle.
Marquez crashes out first lap of Sprint! | 00:29
THE SEEMINGLY OBVIOUS CHOICE: JOHANN ZARCO
Johann Zarco signed a Honda-backed two-year deal to race for satellite team LCR, replacing the outbound Álex Rins from next season. During the toing and froing over Márquez’s future the assumption was that the Frenchman would take the factory seat in a simple step-up.
On paper it should be straightforward, and the logic is clear.
Zarco has become an important development rider for Ducati in the last four years. At Pramac, the premier satellite team of the Ducati stable, he’s played a key role in testing and experimentation for the factory squad, contributing to Bologna’s current domination.
He’s exactly the kind of rider the wayward Honda could use.
But there are clear complications too.
The plan has been met by protest from LCR boss Lucio Cecchinello.
“I am someone who respects contracts and I expect Honda to do the same,” he told Italy’s Sky Sport at the weekend.
Cecchinello has reason to be stubborn. He’s seen prize signing Rins walk out on the team after just one season because of struggles adapting to the Honda bike despite having secured a rare win at the United States Grand Prix earlier this year.
Zarco was a solid replacement who could perform and bring sponsorship to the satellite outfit. Losing him so late in the rider market would be a blow.
Cecchinello also has a potentially powerful card to play in negotiations after confirming KTM had approached him to try to convert LCR into an Austrian satellite. With Honda in such dire straits, the threat of losing its only customer for a rider unlikely to win you a title would certainly revise the cost-benefit analysis.
So if not the straightforward Zarco route, then who?
Speed of Phillip Island excites Bagnaia | 02:58
THE LEAD CONTENDER: MIGUEL OLIVEIRA
Two names emerged over the Indonesian Grand Prix weekend, of whom RNF rider Miguel Oliveira was the leading contender.
The Portuguese man is a five-time race winner in his fifth campaign. He’s a reasonably steady set of hands capable of high peaks, albeit combined with anonymous spells.
To Honda he offers the promise of the occasional big result to keep the detractors quiet during the rebuild.
There are reasons he may not jump so quickly at a Honda move, however. One is the state of Honda’s bike, but the other is the potential to move up to the Aprilia factory team if Aleix Espargaró retires or Maverick Viñales leaves the team — more on that below.
Given the choice today, you’d choose a factory Aprilia over a factory Honda in an instant.
But Oliveira admitted at the weekend that he’d been approached, and he left the door wide open to a potential change.
“I think this season we’ve seen a lot of unprecedented things,” he said, per The Race.
“It’s true that it’s a pleasure to be considered by another manufacturer such as Honda, especially when it’s a factory seat on offer.
“I didn’t have it in my mind to change, and there is nothing on the table yet, just an approach. But nothing concrete.”
The hint at negotiations has incensed Aprilia management.
Aprilia boss Massimo Rivola raged against a perceived lack of respect for contracts — which he said Honda was treating as worth nothing more than “paper to clean the arse” — while RNF principal Razlan Razali said there was no clause in Oliveira’s deal that would automatically allow him to move to a factory team, as is sometimes the case.
“That’s not true,” Oliveira replied after being told of his boss’s assertion.
Clearly the issue remains live heading into the final six weeks of the season.
‘This will sting!’: Martin crashes out | 01:24
THE WILDCARD: MAVERICK VIÑALES
Viñales is the other rider connected to Honda, and he too hasn’t ruled out the possibility of negotiating with the Japanese marque.
“At this moment I didn’t hear nothing, but it’s always good to be open, to listen and to understand,” he said, per MotoMatters. “My commitment right now is 100 per cent with Aprilia.”
Viñales is in the first season of a two-year deal with the works Aprilia team, a bigger deal than a satellite contract. One of the fastest riders on the grid, it’s unsurprising that he was sought after by Aprilia and is now perhaps coveted by Honda.
But he makes less sense to the Japanese marque than, say Oliveira. While he’s renowned for his speed, he also has a reputation for being high maintenance — his falling out with Yamaha is only the highest profile example.
It also makes less sense from his perspective too. He’s already a factory rider, and Aprilia is upwardly mobile. While he’s yet to win on the RS-GP — something his critics will note more loudly the longer the drought continues — the bike has the potential to take him there, as proven by teammate Espargaró.
He’s also the de facto second in command to so-called captain Espargaró, who has signalled he’s probably in his final years. Establishing himself at the Italian team would appear to make much more sense as a career move over taking the risk on a difficult Honda bike.
‘Wasn’t easy!’: Bagnaia talks big win | 02:59
READY TO PICK UP THE PIECES: FABIO DI GIANNANTONIO
Finally we reach the only uncontracted current rider on the grid, Fabio di Giannantonio, who’s set to lose his Gresini seat to Marc Márquez after two years in the sport.
It’s not unfair to say the Italian hasn’t massively impressed during his 18 months or so in the sport. He was shown up by Enea Bastianini last year, and though he’s been a closer match for Alex Márquez this season, he hasn’t executed the kind of statement ride he needs to convince for another season.
Until, perhaps, the weekend in Indonesia. His ride to fourth in the grand prix — after securing sixth in the sprint — was the best finish of his young career. Coming off a pair of eighths in Japan, it feels like things are at last coming together for him, and perhaps just in time.
No-one is connecting him to the factory Honda ride. A switch to that kind of high-pressure seat makes no sense for either party.
But if LCR were to lose Zarco, it could do worse that plug in the well-spoken Italian into the satellite seat.
If RNF were to lose Miguel Oliveira — either to Honda or to the factory Aprilia team because Viñales has moved on — he’d be a shoo-in there too.
Experience is always in demand in MotoGP, and if Di Giannantonio can string together a consistent run to the finish, it could be all the justification a team boss needs to pick him over an untested rookie so late in the piece.
Despite being the original loser from Márquez’s team swap, he could yet emerge from it as winner.