Max Verstappen has the chance to make history on Sunday, and bizarre as it might sound given the last 12 months in Formula 1, it comes against the odds.
The first and only session Verstappen topped all weekend was Q3 in the fight for pole.
Throughout practice and even through the first two qualifying segments success was not guaranteed for the reigning world champion.
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On Friday he broke his floor and lost a lot of meaningful track time.
On Saturday afternoon he couldn’t get to grips with the Pirelli soft tyre, the most delicate in the range, with overheating a problem even in the cool overcast conditions.
But as he so often tends to do, the Dutchman and his Red Bull Racing team pulled together when it really counted to deliver not one but two laps good enough to secure a third consecutive pole position.
Without wanting to kill the vibe, starting from pole is a considerable indicator for race victory at Albert Park.
Of the 26 winners since the race moved to Melbourne, 11 have started on pole, a hit rate of 42 per cent. That rises to 100 per cent — two from two — for races run on the new track layout.
The overall strike rate rises to 65 per cent for drivers starting on the front row and 88 per cent for drivers starting on the first two rows.
If you’re looking for a little bit of optimism for a less predictable outcome, there’s been only one repeat winner in Australia in the last 10 editions of the race: Sebastian Vettel in 2017 and 2018.
The potential prize for another pole is great.
Verstappen is on the brink of winning his 10th grand prix in a row, equalling the record for most consecutive victories in Formula 1.
The current record holder is — wouldn’t you know it — Verstappen, who claimed the 10 grands prix between Miami and Monza last season.
In Australia he could become the first man to do it twice.
Remarkable, horrifying history.
Mixed day for Aussies in Melbourne | 02:10
CAN FERRARI PULL A SURPRISE?
Carlos Sainz has had a tremendous weekend.
Only two weeks ago he was on the operating table in a hospital in Jeddah having his appendix removed.
He hadn’t trained for the last two weeks. He wasn’t sure whether he’d see out the weekend.
He ended qualifying as Ferrari’s fastest driver and with a shot at pole position, with only his approach through the fast chicane at the back of the track preventing him from challenging Verstappen more closely.
“I don’t feel 100 per cent,” he said. “I think it’s impossible to feel 100 per cent after spending seven to 10 days in bed like I did just trying to recover.
“I think nowadays you need to be 100 per cent to beat Max and today I wasn’t, and probably due to that I missed out on pole.
“I think today if I would have done 100 per cent a good job, pole position could have been possible.”
But the Spaniard was pleased that his recovery was continuing apace.
“Yesterday I took it easy at the beginning. I had to do some tweaks to the seat, to the belts, to the brake pedal. But today when the adrenaline came up in quali and I could close the visor and go for it, I could go for it, which is a good thing.”
The loss of pole doesn’t detract from the fact Ferrari has looked competitive all weekend, including in the long runs on Friday.
The combination of soft tyres and this circuit layout appears to have — so far — reduced the gap to Red Bull Racing. Its relatively smooth weekend compared to RBR has also helped it to build itself into a competitive position.
That time spent honing the car could prove important. Tyre degradation is higher this year thanks to the softer compound selection, and teams are increasingly considering two stops as the likely superior strategy.
Every driver has held two sets of hard tyres in anticipation of higher degradation, but that also means no team has any experience using that compound this weekend.
It’s a big jump into the unknown.
The good news is more degradation means more varied pace as drivers manage their way through the race. That in turn means overtaking might be easier than it usually is in Albert Park.
Is that combined enough to give Sainz and Charles Leclerc, starting fourth, a look-in at victory?
Red Bull squander one-two finish | 00:49
PIASTRI DELIVERS DESPITE Q3 FUMBLE
Oscar Piastri had a firm handle on teammate Lando Norris in the build-up to qualifying.
From the beginning of FP2 to the end of Q2, the Aussie seemed certain to lead McLaren in qualifying and give himself the best possible chance at breaking Australia’s home podium drought.
But the form guide slipped suddenly in Q3. Norris took back the upper hand and qualified third after penalties, two places and 0.257 seconds ahead of the home favourite.
The damage was all done at the first turn.
The first turn had challenged Piastri all weekend. By FP3 he thought he’d cracked it, commenting that it was “amazing what happens when you stop being an idiot in turn 1” after setting his best time, but the tricky big braking zone caught him out again when it mattered most.
In an instant he lost more than half his eventual deficit to Norris, with the rest coming out of the large corner.
“First and foremost I made too many mistakes,” he admitted afterwards. “That was the biggest reason of why I am where I am.
“I think we could have done a couple of things a bit better in terms of out-lap preparation too, but there was also my input in that out-lap preparation as well — just too many mistakes when it mattered today.
“I feel like in terms of position it is somewhat fortunate that I’m not further back.
“Not a terrible result, just a bit disappointing because I know there was more on the table.”
There’s still the matter of race pace, and on Friday Piastri looked competitive with Ferrari, albeit with Red Bull Racing’s form unclear.
The Aussie was careful to keep expectations in check.
“I think we looked pretty strong in our race runs yesterday, but the cars around us also look strong, or at least the cars in front of us,” he said.
“I think to beat Red Bull and Ferrari we’re going to need to find something extra or have a bit of good fortune.
“Honestly, if we can finish around where we start and not go further backwards, that would be a good day for us tomorrow.
“I think it’s been a good step forward in terms of we seem to be a bit quicker than Mercedes in Aston around here, which is better than we have been in the last two rounds.”
Albon completely cooks car in nasty hit | 00:52
DANNY RIC’S HOME HEARTBREAK AMID TSUNODA SURGE
RB has once again executed a giant-killing performance by breaking into Q3 in qualifying, with Lewis Hamilton displaced in the process.
Unfortunately for the sold-out crowd, it wasn’t Daniel Ricciardo behind the wheel.
Teammate Yuki Tsunoda claimed the glory for himself with another excellent performance for his second Q3 appearance in a row.
The Aussie, who had been eager to get his season back on track in Melbourne, slumped to 18th in qualifying, last of all bar Zhou Guanyu, who broke his front wing while innocuously riding some kerbs trying to string together his final lap.
There is an asterisk on Ricciardo’s performance. His final lap of Q1 would have been comfortably quick enough to slip into Q2 in 12th.
The only problem was he ran wide exiting turn 4, triggering the deletion of his best lap and knocking him out of Q1 for the first time ever at his home grand prix.
While it’s a bad look on an important weekend, these things happen.
More concerning than the elimination, however, is what Ricciardo revealed afterwards.
“The lap itself I was happy with from my side,” he said of the fallback lap that left him at the back of the grid. “I felt like I got everything out of it, and then when I saw it still wasn’t good enough compared to Yuki.
“That for me is — I’m still a bit puzzled.
“Looking at the time [Tsunoda’s] doing in Q2, I could tell you now I can’t get seven more tenths out of it than what I got in Q1.
“Honestly, there are still some things we’ve got to look at, because it’s been definitely a struggle so far.”
In Saudi Arabia Ricciardo was able to explain away his defeat to Tsunoda as being down to issues found with his car.
There may yet be more issues to be found, but after qualifying in Melbourne the Australian appeared genuinely confounded by the deficit to his younger teammate.
“I feel now I’m at the limit of where its potential is,” he said. “I think deep down, part of me is frustrated that I have to push the car that hard to put me in a position where I’m risking too much [with track limits].”
While Ricciardo’s sad afternoon is the RB story at the Australian Grand Prix, his struggles shouldn’t detract from Tsunoda’s barnstorming drive to a second consecutive Q3 appearance.
The Japanese driver came into this season knowing his career was on the line. Much like last season, he’s risen to the challenge.
“I’m definitely happy,” he said of his own performance. “Big credit to the team that was able to give me a very consistent car throughout the week. I think from FP1 I’ve felt quite comfortable.
“I think what we need now is [to have] no mistakes, to concentrate on having a clean race. The last two races were very frustrating to us.
“I think if we’re able to put it all together, we’ll be able to score points.”
Points in a car with no business being inside the top 10 would be quite the statement at his teammate’s home race.
ALBON DELIVERS DESPITE WEIGHT OF RESPONSIBILITY
Alex Albon has been on an emotional rollercoaster in Melbourne.
His weekend appeared over barely after starting when he smashed his car around 40 minutes into the first practice session.
He was then given an unexpected reprieve when his Williams team switched his written-off car with that of teammate Logan Sargeant, putting the American out of the race to let the Thai continue competing.
It was billed as a pragmatic decision to maximise the team’s shot at points, but Albon admitted he felt the weight of the controversial call on Saturday.
“A weird feeling, if I’m honest, because it’s one thing making a mistake and then feeling pressure trying to deliver a performance in qualifying, but it’s another feeling when you’re obviously been given a responsibility,” he said. “I take that responsibility. It’s not lost on me.
“It was tough, but at the same time the only thing you can really do is focus on your job and put it all behind you and treat your weekend like a normal weekend.
“I think so far we’ve done a good job just to keep it going. The ultimate payback to Logan would be some points.”
Albon looked typically impressive over one lap, especially in Q1. Though the qualifying hour appeared to get away from him on there, starting 12th on the grid puts him in a good place to snipe for points if the race becomes chaotic.
“You just give it everything, especially when the midfield is the way it is,” he said. “You can’t leave a per cent on the table.
“It’s not how we want to go racing. It’s not how I want to go racing. It’s not how anyone wants to go racing. But we are in this position. We’ve got to scrap, we’ve got to fight.”
Albon should’ve scored big points this time last year before binning his car at turn 6.
A redemption score would be sweet justification for the disruption of the last 24 hours.