Ayrton Senna’s career 41 victories isn’t even close to the all-time record, but his standing is so great in Formula 1 that matching that tally has become a major milestone for rising racing powers.
Max Verstappen ticked that box in Canada, immediately bolstering his credentials as one of the sport’s greats at just 25 years old.
Of course comparing win tallies across eras is a fraught exercise.
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Every year of Senna’s career maxed out at 16 races. Excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 season, Verstappen has averaged 21 rounds a year since his debut, and the sport is targeting 24 grands prix annually for the foreseeable future.
Senna also never had the chance to build on his tally, succumbing to injuries sustained in his crash in Imola in 1994. Still at the peak of his powers at the time, there’s little doubt he would’ve collected many more wins had he had the fortune to see out his career.
But for all these years Senna tally has nonetheless been a meaningful gateway into the pantheon of greats.
When he died he was second on the honour roll behind Alain Prost.
Michael Schumacher demoted him to third on his way to 91 victories. Then came Sebastian Vettel, whose eventual 53 wins bumped Senna to fourth. Lewis Hamilton’s charge to 103 dropped Senna down to fifth.
All have four championships or more — true rare air.
Verstappen has the chance to take fifth outright with another win at this weekend’s Austrian Grand Prix, which would demote the Brazilian great to sixth.
“I hate to compare different generations,” Verstappen said. “From my side, the only thing I can say is that when I was a little kid driving in go karting I was dreaming about being a Formula 1 driver, and I would have never imagined winning 41 grands prix.
“To tie with Ayrton is something incredible, and of course I’m proud of that.
“But of course I hope it’s not stopping here. I hope that we can keep on winning more races.”
At only 25 years of age, Verstappen has plenty of time to keep on winning more races. But he likely won’t need as long as you think to reshape the sport.
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THE RECORDS AT RISK
There are four drivers ahead of Verstappen on the victory leaderboard.
Lewis Hamilton: 103 wins
Michael Schumacher: 91 wins
Sebastian Vettel: 53 wins
Alain Prost: 51 wins
Max Verstappen and Ayrton Senna: 41 wins
With 14 rounds remaining this season, Prost’s record is comfortably within range.
A Red Bull Racing clean sweep of the season — possible considering the RB19’s pace but improbable given the number of races — would put Verstappen in the frame to pip Vettel before the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
He could be third on the all-time victory list with three world titles by the end of his ninth season in Formula 1.
But what about the loftier records set by Schumacher and Hamilton? Could Verstappen really be a chance to break two benchmarks previously thought unreachable?
“He’s got a very long career ahead of him, so absolutely,” Hamilton said. “Ultimately records are there to be broken, and he’s got an amazing team.
“It’s likely that they will win every race, moving forwards, this year unless the Astons and us put a lot more performance on the cars or their car doesn’t finish.
“We’ve got to work harder to try and continue to extend [the win tally]. At least within the last period of time in my career I hope we get to have some more close racing.”
Non-stop Verstappen domination would obviously see him scythe quickly to the top of the table.
But even at the height of their title-winning pomp neither Hamilton nor Schumacher was unbeatable, the former never winning more than five races in a row and the latter never more than seven.
Vettel holds the record for nine consecutive victories — foreboding but still well short of a season sweep.
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BUT VERSTAPPEN IS BREAKING NEW GROUND FOR DOMINATION
More than half of Verstappen’s 41 victories have come since the start of last season, when Red Bull Racing burst from the blocks under these new regulations with the best overall package. The RB19 is now comfortably the fastest car in F1.
Having won 21 races over the last 30 grands prix, the Dutchman enjoys a strike rate of 0.7 wins per race, or a 70 per cent victory record.
It’s notably higher than the strike rates enjoyed by Hamilton (0.533) and Schumacher (0.565) in their title-winning years.
At Verstappen’s current rate of success, the route to the top of the all-time victory table is surprisingly short.
A 24-race season is assumed for these calculations given it’s the sport’s target campaign length from 2024 onwards.
Schumacher’s record (50 more wins): 72 races (three seasons)
Hamilton’s record (62 more wins): 89 races (three seasons and 17 races)
Assuming Verstappen wins 10 more times this season — in line with his current hit rate — he can be expected to reach Schumacher’s tally in mid-2026 and Hamilton’s record in early 2027, assuming the Briton adds no more victories to his count between now and then.
But let’s assume Verstappen can’t keep up this crushing run of dominance. After all, both Aston Martin and Mercedes are confident they’re closing the gap, and Red Bull Racing continues to insist it has less scope to step forward next season given its penalty for breaching the 2021 cost cap.
A lesser strike rate blows out both targets, but by only around a season.
At Hamilton’s 2014–20 strike rate (0.533)
Schumacher’s record: 94 races (matched by early 2027)
Hamilton’s record: 117 races (matched by early 2028)
Arguably it would be more realistic to consider the victory rate Schumacher achieved during his most productive seasons between 1994 and 2004, his first and last championship-winning campaigns.
The German legend won 81 of 173 races during that time, or 46.8 per cent of grands prix he started.
That reduced strike rate reflects some of Schumacher’s less glittering seasons, including those early campaigns at Ferrari that failed to return the drivers championship, as well as his closer title battles.
At Schumacher’s 1994–04 strike rate (0.468)
Schumacher’s record: 107 races (matched by late 2027)
Hamilton’s record: 133 races (matched by the final race of 2028)
Again, this assumes Hamilton wins no more races.
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TIME IS ON HIS SIDE
Verstappen has signed a contract to remain with Red Bull Racing until the end of 2028. He’s sometimes suggested that he could pull the plug on F1 once it expires, by which time he’ll be 31 years old.
But conventional wisdom suggests Verstappen will only just be entering his prime by around that age — a frightening thought for his would-be rivals.
Hamilton, for example, didn’t win his first Mercedes championship until he was 29 years old. Schumacher won his first Ferrari championship just over two months before his 32nd birthday.
There’ll be at least one major rule change between now and the end of his contract, and the sport’s new equalisation measures should make it increasingly difficult for one team to dominate as time goes on.
But Mercedes proved during its golden run that regulation changes don’t always reset the order, and though equalisation measures will hold Red Bull Racing down, Milton Keynes has proven itself to be one of the sport’s most efficient operators, a quality the cost cap and development restrictions are designed to reward.
So it’s comfortably within the realm of possibility that Verstappen has the chance to set new benchmarks in Formula 1 — and if he does, he’ll do so during what on paper is supposed to be Formula 1’s most egalitarian era, contrasting starkly to the big-spending Ferrari and Mercedes epochs of decades past.
And regardless of your view of the Dutchman, it’ll be impossible to argue with the Dutchman’s status then.