Lando Norris opened the Mexico City Grand Prix weekend by declaring that McLaren wouldn’t be very competitive.
As has often been the case this year, the exact opposite of his pessimistic forecast appears to be coming true.
To be fair to Norris, on paper this track shouldn’t suit the MCL60. It’s mostly slow, fiddly corners of the kind the car hates, even after its massive round of mid-year upgrades. The low-grip conditions are also generally not McLaren territory, nor are the long straights.
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Aussies struggle in US Grand Prix | 03:23
Yet Norris was easily Max Verstappen’s closest challenger on Friday afternoon. He was only 0.119 seconds slower than the leading Dutchman, comfortably within striking distance.
It’s reasonable to be cautious about predictions on Friday in a session that saw seven different constructors inside the top eight and surprisingly limited field spread, with less than half a second splitting the entire top 10.
Conditions are also very changeable at high altitude. What the teams get tomorrow and Sunday may bear little resemblance to Friday’s circumstances.
But on the evidence of free practice, McLaren is in with a shout of denying Red Bull Racing victory this weekend.
RED BULL RACING vs MCLAREN LOOKS REAL
McLaren’s positive forecast isn’t based just on a competitive single lap. It’s in the long-run averages that the MCL60 looks most competitive — more competitive, even, than Red Bull Racing.
Long-run averages, medium tyre
1. McLaren: 1:23.012
2. Red Bull Racing: 1:23.286
3. Mercedes: 1:23.45
4. Alpine: 1:23.729
5. Ferrari: 1:23.885
6. Alfa Romeo: 1:24.041
7. AlphaTauri: 1:24.096
8. Williams: 1:24.180
9. Haas: 1:24.184
10. Aston Martin: 1:24.524
McLaren’s run on the medium tyre was both longer and more competitive than Red Bull Racing’s. The only very minor caveat is that Verstappen had put three laps on his medium tyres before his long run, whereas Norris had a fresh set at his disposal.
So why might McLaren be performing so well?
For one, while the car dislikes low-grip conditions, the entire field is experiencing the same problem. It’s not that the track is a low-grip surface; it’s that the thin air at 2.2 kilometres above sea level is leaving every team without their usual downforce load.
The thin air also means McLaren isn’t penalised for carrying more drag — like it was at, say, Monza last month, where it only just scored points.
But there is a potential asterisk here. Conditions were cooler than they’re expected to be for the rest of the weekend, and constant drizzle meant the track surface remained cool too. Keeping the tyres from overheating is the key strategic challenge at this circuit, and a hotter track might throw these numbers into doubt.
Based on practice data, however, McLaren is in the mix for its first grand prix victory of the season.
Can Oscar Piastri join Norris’s victory bid? Despite being 0.358 seconds down on his teammate over a single lap, you’d be wise not to count him out. Not only can he be forgiven for the deficit given these are the first two hours of running he’s ever completed at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, but it’s par for the course for him to make big improvements on Friday night to put himself in range of his teammate for qualifying.
‘HUNGRY AND MOTIVATED’ RICCIARDO IN THE TOP SIX
The first race of Daniel Ricciardo’s second 2023 comeback ended with a whimper in the United States last week, where debris damage picked up early in the race condemned him to an ineffectual last place.
It had been a reasonable weekend to that point — underwhelming on his first day on Friday but improving significantly on Saturday — but it meant the Australian never got a chance to really gauge where he and his upgraded car were in the order of things.
It’s only practice day, but Friday in Mexico seemed to answer some of those unresolved questions.
Ricciardo finished a superb sixth in FP2 and just 0.316 seconds slower than leader Max Verstappen.
There are question marks over how representative the session was — Valtteri Bottas put his Alfa Romeo fourth, for example, which is highly unusual.
But the high-altitude demands of Mexico City sometimes produce unexpected results, and Ricciardo said his confidence in the car matched his result on the time sheet.
“Coming from Austin we already started with a different set-up today,” he said. “There were things if [Austin] wasn’t a sprint weekend, we would’ve tried on the car, so we were able to obviously try that today.
“From the get-go I was certainly comfortable, then we just chipped away from it.
“It’s good to drive today. I’m very hungry and motivated, and it feels good.”
Good enough for Q3?
“I’m definitely confident,” he said. “You never want to stand here and predict where we’ll be tomorrow, because who knows in quali and what other teams might do with fuel or engines, but I know what I felt in the car today was good, and I believe that is a top-10 car tomorrow. A top-six car would be nice, so we’ll try to keep that going!
“I’m not smiling because I’m looking ahead; it’s a good day, and it gives me confidence for tomorrow.”
BAD TIMES ROLL FOR LANCE STROLL — AND ASTON MARTIN
For the second weekend in a row Lance Stroll lost significant practice time to car problems not of his making.
In Austin last week it was a brake fire that lost him all the weekend’s sole practice session. He subsequently started the race from pit lane, from where he finished an impressive seventh.
It was the sort of result the team hoped could generate some momentum for the Canadian, but another lengthy spell in the garage during FP2 meant he never got to sample the track before it got too wet to set a competitive time, and he ended up anchored to 18th place without even a race simulation run.
Worse is that that was as good as it got for Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso last in the order in FP2.
The Spaniard lost his sole soft-tyre lap to a spin through the esses. He’d looked reasonably competitive up to that point, being 0.158 seconds down on Verstappen in the first sector, where the straights punish the Aston Martin’s higher drag.
But his long-run pace on the medium tyre was very poor — in fact Aston Martin ended the day as the slowest car in the race simulations. Stroll’s extended absence from FP2 also meant there wasn’t time to put the hard tyre through its paces.
With McLaren potentially on track for a big result, the green team might find itself as good as out for the count in the battle for fourth by the end of the weekend at this rate.
ROOKIES GET THEIR CHANCE
Jack Doohan got behind the wheel of Pierre Gasly’s Alpine during FP1 in Mexico, the third F1 appearance of his fledgling career after practice outings here and Abu Dhabi last season.
Alongside Piastri and Ricciardo, it’s the first time three Australians have taken part in a grand prix weekend since 1977, when Alan Jones, Vern Schuppan and Brian McGuire all appeared at the British Grand Prix.
Doohan’s program comprised 25 laps, including a long final stint on the soft tyre, to end the session 18th. He said he wasn’t given the chance to complete a low-fuel flying lap.
The Gold Coast native’s route to Formula 1 is unclear following a difficult follow-up F2 season this year. Having expected to contend for this year’s title, Doohan took until the Hungarian Grand Prix to get his first win for the year, thanks largely to car problems beyond his control.
He’s fourth in the title race and is targeting a top-three finish in the standings with one round to go.
Doohan has hinted he will race with Alpine in the World Endurance Championship next year in the hope an F1 opportunity opens up in 2025, with both Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon signed up at the French team until the end of next year.
The Aussie was among a gaggle of five rookie drivers in the bottom six places on the practice time sheet.
The group of young guns was led by highly rated Ferrari junior Oliver Bearman, the 2021 Italian and German F4 champion who last year finished third in Formula 3, who was 15th for Haas.
Bearman is sixth in this year’s F2 championship and just one point behind leading rookie Victor Martins in the series.
Frenchman and F2 podium-getter Isack Hadjar was 17th for AlphaTauri ahead of Doohan and Danish Mercedes junior Frederik Vesti, who’s second in this year’s F2 standings.
The title leader, Frenchman Theo Pourchaire, had his session wasted by brake issues that prevented him from completing a flying lap for Alfa Romeo.