For exciting results, just remove oxygen.
Mexico City always produces interesting and unusual results, with its elevation at 2.2 kilometres above sea level creating a unique set of a conditions for Formula 1.
The thin air means there’s less downforce. Small changes in track temperature have a huge impact on grip — and the track temperature can vary massively based on minor changes in cloud cover.
A good qualifying performance is therefore as much about getting the most from the car as it is about mastering the conditions.
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How else can you explain an otherwise inexplicable Ferrari front-row lockout ahead of Max Verstappen?
The Italian team hadn’t looked like a contender until Q3, and neither driver saw it coming as late as the start of Q3.
“It is a massive surprise,” Leclerc said. “I am massively surprised.
“We got to Q1 and Q2 and were like, ‘Okay, that’s as expected, were going to fight for fifth or sixth’, and then we get to Q3 and we put it on the front row with two cars.
“It’s a late surprise but a good one, so I’m happy with that.”
Ferrari’s race pace didn’t look rapid on Friday, and the chance of all conditions being in the same sweet spot for all 71 laps on Sunday is seriously unlikely.
Verstappen remains favourite from third on the grid.
But the numerical advantage could be valuable not only around the pit stops but particularly at the start, when the long run to the first braking zone usually leaves the pole-getter vulnerable to a slipstream from behind.
“I think we’re in a great position to [fight for victory],” Sainz said. “Now it’s a matter of making sure we put together a strong race, well thought-out, well executed, and if we do that, maybe it gives us a chance to beat him.”
If Ferrari can keep up the fight long enough to turn it into a genuine duel, the outcome may depend on whether Sergio Pérez can get involved from fifth.
DANNY RIC PRESSURES PÉREZ ON HOME TURF
Daniel Ricciardo hasn’t qualified inside the top 10 since last year’s Italian Grand Prix, but he broke that drought emphatically with a superb performance in Mexico.
This is just Ricciardo’s fourth full weekend in the car and second proper grand prix weekend, with Belgium and the United States run to the sprint weekend formats that robbed him of crucial practice laps to make up for months sitting on the sidelines.
It’s taken the weird conditions of Mexico City, but things are starting to come together.
“I feel a lot like my old self,” Ricciardo told Sky Sports. “I can do well.”
Ricciardo has oozed confidence all weekend, but the seed was planted in his difficult United States Grand Prix performance, where he was sure there would’ve been much more on the table had he had more time to finesse the car.
He proved it in Mexico and ended up so far up the grid he surprised even himself.
“From lap one yesterday I felt really confident,” he said. “P4 is maybe a little more than we thought, but coming into quali it wasn’t about getting Q3 but how far we could get inside.
“Definitely as a team we had confidence, but I thought maybe with a perfect lap it’s P6, P7, not a P4.
“We started the weekend with a bit of a different set-up and it’s something I just felt comfortable with. There was definitely a positive chip on my shoulder as well … it kind of brought out a lot of confidence.
“Even FP3 this morning I was P9 and wasn’t happy at all with my lap, but as opposed to be frustrated with that, it gave me confidence into quali that I could clean it up and we’d be well inside the top 10.”
Only two Ferrari drivers and Max Verstappen were faster than Ricciardo on Saturday.
It may not have escaped your attention that Sergio Pérez is one place behind him in what ought to have been a much faster car.
True, the margins were very tight in the pole-setting session. And Pérez had only one set of new softs to use in Q3, having used an extra set earlier in the session, which meant he missed the track when it was at its best — and even then he was only 0.160 seconds slower than Verstappen. It was one of his stronger performances.
But Ricciardo’s overperformance just tightens the screws on the under-pressure Mexican. If Ricciardo is his back to his old self, Pérez is all out of margin in his quest to hold his seat.
Can the Aussie double down in the race?
“Part of me says: why not — why can’t we stay at the front and fight where we are?” he said. “Q3, we got that on merit. It’s not like we had a bit of help to determine the final grid position.
“Part of me always expects the top teams to show a little bit more on Sunday, but why not?
“There are a lot of cars behind me. That feels nice.”
FIA STEWARDING PROCESSES BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT
But there was an asterisk over Verstappen’s place on the grid for almost three hours after qualifying, with six drivers put under post-session stewards investigations for a variety of Q1 incidents.
Lewis Hamilton was alleged not to have slowed sufficiently under yellow flags at the end of Q1 for Alonso’s spin in the first sector. He was let off because review of the in-car video showed yellow lights flashed only twice and that he slowed for that brief period.
Logan Sargeant was charged with overtaking during the same yellow flags and will drop an academic 10 grid places from last place.
More interesting though was that George Russell, Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso were all let off for causing a farcical traffic jam at the end of pit lane during Q1 to make space for themselves on track.
Verstappen had done something similar in Singapore and earnt a reprimand, though the FIA said afterwards that the stewards should have been harsher with his punishment.
But in this instance, while the stewards agreed the drivers had broken one rule about stopping unnecessarily in the pit lane, they argued they only did it to obey another rule about not travelling too slowly on an out-lap while searching for a gap in traffic.
“We note that there are contrary requirements on drivers in that they must respect the minimum time, they are attempting to create manageable gaps to cars in front, yet they are also required to avoid unnecessarily stopping at the pit exit or driving unnecessarily slowly,” the ruling said.
“It was also particularly noted that the race director accepted that these contrary requirements exist.
“All parties, including the stewards, are firmly of the view that it is better to have the potential of cars backing up in the pit lane or at the pit exit instead of the potentially dangerous situation of large speed differences on track.
“It is desirable that better solution be found for the pit exit. However, at this stage what that solution would be is unknown.”
The three hours after the race put the FIA processes into the spotlight.
In the cases of Hamilton and Sargeant, the matters were black and white. They either did or didn’t break those rules. Yet fans were forced to wait for three hours for a ruling that, according to the judgement documents, didn’t even require input from the teams, at least in Hamilton’s case.
One of the FIA’s chief developments following the 2021 Abu Dhabi debacle was the formation of a remote operations centre designed to assist race control in identifying potential penalties. Surely this body could have been put to good use in these instances to greatly speed up the rulings.
That in turn could have sped up judgements for Verstappen, Russell and Alonso — though in this case there’s clearly a far bigger question about the cohesiveness of the regulations at play.
Given qualifying out-lap behaviour is a constant issue at several tracks on the calendar, there’s clearly a need for a holistic rewrite of the rules to ensure this sort of thing doesn’t keep happening.
“They need to say: ‘you cannot stop in the pit lane, you cannot go slower than the speed limit. It is what it is, get out on track, and let’s go qualifying’,” Jenson Button said on Sky Sports.
“It’s mad that you are able to do that and stop everyone behind you. If you stop, you should pull to the right-hand side, you shouldn’t be in the fast lane.”
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McLAREN PAYS THE PRICE FOR CONFIDENCE
Lando Norris and McLaren ended Friday with confidence they were in the fight for the front row and, from there, at least the podium, if not an unlikely victory.
That dream never really got going in qualifying. Norris was eliminated 19th, slowest of all the drivers to have set a lap time.
It was a combination of team and driver error that cost him.
McLaren was so confident in its pace that it sent both drivers out on the medium tyre. It wasn’t fast enough, and Norris was recalled to pit lane without a time in the bank.
He was fuelled for two flying laps at the end of the session on soft tyres instead — a high-risk do-or-die stint but one that should have been comfortably within grasp of a car easily quick enough for Q3.
But Norris bottled his first lap with a slide through the stadium section, leaving him with just one last attempt to progress. That lap was subsequently spoiled when Fernando Alonso spun at turn 3, bringing out yellow flags that forced the Briton to abandon his time and accept 19th in the order.
He’ll start 18th on the grid ahead of Logan Sargeant and the penalised Yuki Tsunoda.
Norris took all the blame afterwards. Certainly he had the opportunity to set a lap that would’ve seen him through.
But in a session defined by traffic and a peaky and unpredictable track surface, McLaren didn’t need to run so many risks on a weekend expectations for a good result were suddenly elevated.
A pole battle obviously wasn’t guaranteed — Oscar Piastri was rapid in Q2 but will start on the fourth row after the track got away from him in Q3 — but not only is the chance to find out lost, but so too surely is a rare crack at victory.